NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10BKN

BKN

13-34

10999

UTAH

15-34

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -3.5

BKN · top performer

Egor Demin

G · #8

20.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 24pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WolfF · #2	28	14	6-11	2-7	0-2	-6	5	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	30	6	3-7	—	0-6	-2	9	3
T. MannG · #14	28	7	3-6	1-3	—	-5	2	1
E. DeminG · #8	29	25	8-16	6-12	3-4	+2	10	4
N. TraoreG · #88	26	7	3-8	0-2	1-1	-9	2	6
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	20	9	3-7	3-6	—	+16	3	3
D. SharpeC · #20	18	16	4-5	1-1	7-9	+12	9	1
C. ThomasG · #24	24	21	7-15	1-6	6-6	+14	2	4
D. PowellG · #4	16	2	1-1	—	—	+14	2	1
B. SarafG · #77	21	2	1-6	0-3	—	+14	3	2
Team		109	39-82	14-40	17-28		47	27
DNP: E.J. Liddell, T. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	28	14	6-9	2-3	0-2	+6	12	2
C. WilliamsF · #5	28	6	3-6	—	—	+6	2	1
S. MykhailiukG · #10	21	3	1-6	1-4	—	-6	2	3
K. GeorgeG · #3	32	26	9-11	1-3	7-10	-5	3	7
A. BaileyG · #19	29	12	5-10	2-5	—	+5	2	0
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	20	2	1-2	—	—	-16	1	4
T. HendricksF · #0	15	7	3-7	1-4	0-2	-12	3	1
B. SensabaughF · #28	26	18	6-14	3-8	3-3	-12	5	0
I. CollierG · #8	27	10	5-10	0-1	—	-7	2	7
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	13	1	0-3	0-1	1-2	-9	1	1
Team		99	39-78	10-29	11-19		33	26
DNP: L. Markkanen, W. Kessler

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

39-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-78

FG %

14-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

17-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 5

UTAH123@

BKN110

Jan 31

BKN109@

UTAH99today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTAH -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+13642%

UTAH-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTAH -3.5↗SpreadBet UTAH -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BKN beat UTAH 109-99. E. Demin paced them with 25 PTS, 10 REB, 4 AST. BKN outscored the other side 26-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 40

UTAHstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

38 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST

GS 24

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH3rd Quarter · 6:54 · 66-63

+14pp→ 45% WP

Isaiah Collier · enters the game for Svi Mykhailiuk

BKN4th Quarter · 6:07 · 94-89

+11pp→ 77% WP

Egor Demin · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)

UTAH3rd Quarter · 4:54 · 72-65

+24pp→ 24% WP

Day'Ron Sharpe · enters the game for Terance Mann

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	27	27	29	26	109
UTAH	26	26	29	18	99

Period scoring

BKN won 3 · UTAH won 0

Demin 11

George 10

Thomas 14

George 9

Mann 5

George 11

Demin 10

Sensabaugh 8

BKN

UTAH

Shooting comparison

BKN

UTAH

48%

39-82

50%

39-78

35%

14-40

3PT

34%

10-29

61%

17-28

58%

11-19

Play-by-play · 441 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 109·UTAH 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 109·UTAH 99
Q4·2.3
Nolan Traore personal foul
BKN 106·UTAH 99
Q4·6.1
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
BKN 106·UTAH 99
Q4·9.9
Danny Wolf misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 106·UTAH 99
−0.5pp
Q4·32.5
Brice Sensabaugh makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
BKN 106·UTAH 99
+0.5pp
Q4·43.1
Brice Sensabaugh defensive rebound
BKN 106·UTAH 96
Q4·43.1
Egor Demin misses free throw 2 of 2
BKN 106·UTAH 96
Q4·43.1
Egor Demin makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 106·UTAH 96
Q4·43.1
Kyle Filipowski loose ball foul
BKN 105·UTAH 96
−0.6pp
Q4·43.1
Nets defensive team rebound
BKN 105·UTAH 96
−0.5pp
Q4·44.6
Cody Williams misses 6-foot pullup jump shot
BKN 105·UTAH 96
−2pp
Q4·52.9
Brice Sensabaugh makes technical free throw
BKN 105·UTAH 96
Q4·52.9
Jordi Fernandez technical foul
BKN 105·UTAH 95
+1pp
Q4·55.2
Nolan Traore out of bounds lost ball turnover
BKN 105·UTAH 95
+2pp
Q4·1:05
Kyle Filipowski makes driving layup (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
BKN 105·UTAH 95
Q4·1:12
Danny Wolf makes driving layup (Nolan Traore assists)
·
BKN 105·UTAH 93
Q4·1:33
Nolan Traore defensive rebound
BKN 103·UTAH 93
Q4·1:35
Ace Bailey misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BKN 103·UTAH 93
−1pp
Q4·1:48
Egor Demin makes 25-foot three pointer (Nolan Traore assists)
·
BKN 106·UTAH 93
−0.5pp
Q4·2:09
Nolan Traore defensive rebound
BKN 103·UTAH 93
Q4·2:09
Nolan Traore blocks Isaiah Collier 's 6-foot driving layup
·
BKN 103·UTAH 93
+0.5pp
Q4·2:14
Brice Sensabaugh offensive rebound
BKN 103·UTAH 93
+0.6pp
Q4·2:15
Ace Bailey misses 3-foot jumper
BKN 103·UTAH 93
−1pp
Q4·2:40
Nolan Traore makes free throw 1 of 1
BKN 103·UTAH 93
+0.8pp
Q4·2:40
Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for Keyonte George
·
BKN 102·UTAH 93
Q4·2:40
Isaiah Collier shooting foul
BKN 102·UTAH 93
−2pp
Q4·2:40
Nolan Traore makes 3-foot two point shot
BKN 102·UTAH 93
−2pp
Q4·2:51
Terance Mann defensive rebound
BKN 100·UTAH 93
−0.8pp
Q4·2:54
Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point jumper
BKN 100·UTAH 93
−3pp

Betting line

UTAH -3.5·O/U 226.5·BKN +136/UTAH -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rooklyn Nets went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 109–99.

BKN +3.5 cashed (UTAH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cam ThomasMIL · G
USG%30.397
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Day'Ron SharpeBKN · C
TS%63.890
Nolan TraoreBKN · G
DRIVES9.886

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Oscar TshiebweUTAH
8.5± 5.5high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

UTAH

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR