NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHI

CHI

24-25

125118

MIA

26-24

NBASat, Jan 31FinalSeriesMIA leads series 2-1VegasMIA -5.5

CHI · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #11

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Pelle Larsson

G · #9

24.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 38pp · 4th Quarter · 1:17

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. WilliamsF · #44	34	15	5-12	3-6	2-2	-6	4	2
I. OkoroF · #35	34	20	7-12	2-2	4-6	+10	1	3
M. BuzelisF · #14	33	21	7-15	3-7	4-4	+8	8	4
K. HuerterG · #13	22	9	4-9	1-5	0-1	+8	7	5
A. DosunmuG · #11	37	29	11-16	5-6	2-3	+10	8	9
Bench
D. TerryF · #7	29	9	4-8	1-3	0-1	+2	3	7
J. PhillipsF · #15	12	3	1-1	—	1-1	+1	1	0
J. CarterG · #5	20	11	4-10	3-8	—	+2	5	1
Y. KawamuraG · #8	11	6	2-4	2-3	—	-4	3	2
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		125	46-88	20-40	13-18		43	34
DNP: E. Miller, C. White

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	33	17	6-16	3-9	2-3	-12	1	1
M. GardnerF · #15	23	12	4-5	1-2	3-5	-4	11	0
B. AdebayoC · #13	36	21	7-18	1-8	6-9	-8	11	1
P. LarssonG · #9	33	22	7-11	2-5	6-7	-3	7	4
K. JakucionisG · #25	27	6	2-7	2-6	—	+2	3	5
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	18	8	3-10	2-8	—	-2	2	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	32	20	8-16	1-3	3-4	-5	6	7
N. JovicF · #5	15	2	1-6	0-2	—	-4	2	1
K. WareC · #7	3	2	1-2	0-1	—	-2	1	1
D. SmithG · #12	20	8	2-4	1-3	3-3	+3	3	6
Team		118	41-95	13-47	23-31		47	26
DNP: K. Johnson, N. Powell, D. Mitchell, J. Young

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

46-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-95

FG %

20-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-47

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 2-1

Nov 22

MIA143@

CHI107

Jan 9

MIA0@

CHI0

Jan 30

MIA116@

CHI113

Feb 1

CHI125@

MIA118today

Feb 1

CHI91@

MIA134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+17037%

MIA-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -5.5↗SpreadBet MIA -5.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MIA 125-118. A. Dosunmu paced them with 29 PTS, 8 REB, 9 AST. CHI outscored the other side 35-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

94 PTS · 28 REB · 23 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

MIAstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 33 REB · 11 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 14 REB · 15 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA3rd Quarter · 10:35 · 56-67

+24pp→ 91% WP

Matas Buzelis · lost ball turnover (Andrew Wiggins steals)

MIA4th Quarter · 3:37 · 106-104

+19pp→ 55% WP

Kevin Huerter · shooting foul

MIA4th Quarter · 1:17 · 116-116

+38pp→ 49% WP

Matas Buzelis · enters the game for Dalen Terry

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	31	25	35	34	125
MIA	25	38	21	34	118

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · MIA won 1

Williams 6

Wiggins 6

Buzelis 8

Jr. 10

Okoro 11

Larsson 9

Buzelis 11

Adebayo 17

CHI

MIA

Shooting comparison

CHI

MIA

52%

46-88

43%

41-95

50%

20-40

3PT

28%

13-47

72%

13-18

74%

23-31

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 125·MIA 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 125·MIA 118
Q4·5.2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot
CHI 125·MIA 118
Q4·11.5
Patrick Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 125·MIA 116
Q4·11.5
Patrick Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 124·MIA 116
Q4·11.5
Bam Adebayo personal foul
CHI 123·MIA 116
Q4·16.7
Ayo Dosunmu defensive rebound
CHI 123·MIA 116
Q4·19.2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 21-foot jumper
CHI 123·MIA 116
−1pp
Q4·21.3
Dru Smith offensive rebound
CHI 123·MIA 116
+0.7pp
Q4·24.8
Andrew Wiggins misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 123·MIA 116
−2pp
Q4·30.2
Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 123·MIA 116
+1pp
Q4·30.2
Matas Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 122·MIA 116
−0.5pp
Q4·30.2
Dru Smith personal foul
CHI 121·MIA 116
−3pp
Q4·30.3
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
CHI 121·MIA 116
−1pp
Q4·32.2
Pelle Larsson misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 121·MIA 116
−4pp
Q4·34.6
(00:34.6) [Heat] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Heat] retain their timeout
CHI 121·MIA 116
+5pp
Q4·34.6
Heat Full timeout
CHI 121·MIA 116
−5pp
Q4·34.6
Heat offensive team rebound
CHI 121·MIA 116
+3pp
Q4·37.6
Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 121·MIA 116
−4pp
Q4·39.1
Dalen Terry enters the game for Yuki KawamuraBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 121·MIA 116
−38pp
Q4·39.1
Heat Full timeout
CHI 121·MIA 116
Q4·39.1
Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 121·MIA 116
−16pp
Q4·58.4
Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound
CHI 118·MIA 116
−3pp
Q4·1:01
Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 118·MIA 116
−9pp
Q4·1:12
Matas Buzelis makes running layup (Ayo Dosunmu assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 118·MIA 116
−9pp
Q4·1:13
Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Ayo Dosunmu steals)
·
CHI 116·MIA 116
Q4·1:17
Matas Buzelis enters the game for Dalen TerryBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 116·MIA 116
+38pp
Q4·1:17
Ayo Dosunmu vs. Bam Adebayo (Ayo Dosunmu gains possession)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 116·MIA 116
−9pp
Q4·1:17
Bam Adebayo offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MIA 116
+9pp
Q4·1:20
Andrew Wiggins misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MIA 116
−17pp

Betting line

MIA -5.5·O/U 231.5·CHI +170/MIA -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls went into Miami Heat and beat them, 125–118.

CHI +5.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.086

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high
Josh GiddeyCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

MIA

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.8%

116.3

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

28.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR