NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19BOS

SAC

12-38

93112

BOS

30-18

NBAFri, Jan 30FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-0VegasBOS -11.5

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

15.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ BOS

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	13	2	1-5	—	—	-8	3	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	36	14	6-7	1-1	1-1	-15	14	1
D. DeRozanG · #10	18	6	2-10	0-2	2-3	-11	1	2
D. SchroderG · #17	24	4	1-11	0-4	2-2	-24	4	3
Z. LaVineG · #8	23	17	5-9	1-4	6-7	-28	4	1
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	28	8	3-4	—	2-2	0	8	1
M. MonkG · #0	23	12	3-14	2-6	4-4	+3	3	4
D. PlowdenG · #29	7	2	1-3	0-2	—	+4	2	1
I. StevensG · #24	4	2	—	—	2-2	+2	0	1
D. CarterG · #22	11	5	2-4	1-2	—	-3	3	2
K. EllisG · #23	20	6	2-4	2-3	—	-4	2	2
N. CliffordG · #5	34	15	5-12	3-7	2-2	-11	3	1
Team		93	31-83	10-31	21-23		47	19
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	30	10	3-9	2-8	2-2	+11	3	1
N. QuetaC · #88	29	10	4-11	—	2-4	+25	15	2
D. WhiteG · #9	33	7	3-7	1-3	—	+28	2	9
P. PritchardG · #11	33	29	12-16	5-6	—	+20	2	8
B. ScheiermanG · #55	31	16	6-10	4-7	—	+25	5	1
Bench
C. BoucherF · #99	4	3	1-3	1-3	—	-2	0	0
J. MinottF · #8	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	-1	0	1
L. GarzaC · #52	16	11	4-5	1-1	2-3	-4	8	1
A. SimonsG · #4	26	16	6-16	2-10	2-2	-8	2	1
J. WalshG · #27	16	5	1-7	1-5	2-4	-8	3	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	22	2	1-8	0-4	0-1	+9	4	1
Team		112	42-93	18-48	10-16		44	25
DNP: X. Tillman, J. Brown

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

31-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-93

FG %

10-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-48

21-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-0

Jan 2

BOS120@

SAC106

Jan 31

SAC93@

BOS112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+39020%

BOS-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -11.5↗SpreadBet BOS -11.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat SAC 112-93. P. Pritchard paced them with 29 PTS, 2 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 40-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 26 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

Bench(7)

50 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 38

BOSstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 27 REB · 21 AST

GS 68

Bench(6)

40 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 26

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	25	21	20	27	93
BOS	40	32	17	23	112

Period scoring

SAC won 2 · BOS won 2

LaVine 9

Pritchard 11

Monk 5

Pritchard 11

Raynaud 5

Scheierman 6

Raynaud 7

Simons 7

SAC

BOS

Shooting comparison

SAC

BOS

37%

31-83

45%

42-93

32%

10-31

3PT

38%

18-48

91%

21-23

63%

10-16

Play-by-play · 458 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 93·BOS 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 93·BOS 112
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
SAC 93·BOS 112
Q4·1.0
Chris Boucher makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Minott assists)
·
SAC 93·BOS 112
Q4·21.6
Nique Clifford makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 93·BOS 109
Q4·21.6
Nique Clifford makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 92·BOS 109
Q4·21.6
Josh Minott shooting foul
SAC 91·BOS 109
Q4·33.6
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
SAC 91·BOS 109
Q4·37.1
Hugo Gonzalez misses 28-foot three point jumper
SAC 91·BOS 109
Q4·56.5
Devin Carter makes 29-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 91·BOS 109
Q4·1:05
Daeqwon Plowden defensive rebound
SAC 88·BOS 109
Q4·1:08
Hugo Gonzalez misses 26-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·BOS 109
Q4·1:26
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
SAC 88·BOS 109
Q4·1:27
Devin Carter misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 88·BOS 109
Q4·1:35
Josh Minott makes 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·BOS 109
Q4·1:46
Dylan Cardwell makes 1-foot running dunk (Isaiah Stevens assists)
·
SAC 88·BOS 106
Q4·1:49
Hugo Gonzalez lost ball turnover (Isaiah Stevens steals)
·
SAC 86·BOS 106
Q4·1:51
Hugo Gonzalez offensive rebound
SAC 86·BOS 106
Q4·1:55
Chris Boucher misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 86·BOS 106
Q4·2:15
Isaiah Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 86·BOS 106
Q4·2:15
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
SAC 85·BOS 106
Q4·2:15
Josh Minott enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
SAC 85·BOS 106
Q4·2:15
Isaiah Stevens makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 85·BOS 106
Q4·2:15
Chris Boucher shooting foul
SAC 84·BOS 106
Q4·2:36
Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
SAC 84·BOS 106
Q4·2:54
Devin Carter makes two point shot
SAC 84·BOS 103
Q4·3:05
Kings defensive team rebound
SAC 82·BOS 103
Q4·3:07
Chris Boucher misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 82·BOS 103
Q4·3:18
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
SAC 82·BOS 103
Q4·3:21
Daeqwon Plowden misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 82·BOS 103

Betting line

BOS -11.5·O/U 216.5·SAC +390/BOS -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Sacramento Kings, 112–93.

BOS -11.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Josh MinottBKN · F
TS%65.092
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

BOS

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR