BKN
12-34
DEN
32-16
BKN · top performer
Michael Porter Jr.
F · #17
38
Pts
10
Reb
3
Ast
DEN · top performer
Jamal Murray
G · #27
27
Pts
4
Reb
6
Ast
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 5:37
NBA · Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 38 | 13-28 | 7-15 | 5-5 | +12 | 10 | 3 | |
| 28 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-4 | — | +5 | 4 | 3 | |
| 31 | 10 | 4-7 | — | 2-2 | +6 | 8 | 7 | |
| 29 | 12 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 4-5 | +11 | 6 | 1 | |
| 30 | 9 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 1-2 | +4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | -8 | 1 | 1 | |
| 17 | 7 | 3-5 | — | 1-2 | -12 | 9 | 1 | |
| 17 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 | — | -19 | 6 | 0 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | -11 | 1 | 1 | |
| 18 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | — | -8 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 103 | 37-85 | 14-37 | 15-18 | 49 | 24 | ||
| DNP: E.J. Liddell, Z. Williams | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 15 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -23 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 12 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 4-4 | +11 | 9 | 3 | |
| 33 | 27 | 9-16 | 2-3 | 7-7 | -9 | 4 | 6 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -9 | 3 | 3 | |
| 34 | 19 | 7-15 | 2-3 | 3-6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 23 | 4 | 2-4 | — | — | -3 | 7 | 1 | |
| 28 | 25 | 9-15 | 7-11 | 0-1 | +21 | 8 | 3 | |
| 33 | 12 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 1-3 | +13 | 3 | 3 | |
| 22 | 7 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +11 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 107 | 38-80 | 13-26 | 18-25 | 41 | 24 | ||
| DNP: A. Gordon, D. Holmes II | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
48
24
Ast
24
Team stats
BKN
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
37-85
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
38-80
44
FG %
48
14-37
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-26
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-25
24
Assists
24
8
Turnovers
6
Season series
Series tied 1-1
DEN115@BKN127BKN103@DEN107todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
209.5
Defensive · -16.5 vs avg
Moneyline
BKN+20033%DEN-24571%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
209.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat BKN 107-103. J. Murray paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 6 AST. BKN outscored the other side 27-15 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs BKN
Starters vs bench
production by unitBKNstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
76 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST
GS 66
Bench(5)
27 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
DENstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST
GS 50
Bench(5)
48 PTS · 22 REB · 9 AST
GS 43
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDay'Ron Sharpe · shooting foul
Jamal Murray · misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
Nic Claxton · shooting foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKN | 26 | 23 | 27 | 27 | 103 |
| DEN | 30 | 34 | 15 | 28 | 107 |
Period scoring
BKN won 1 · DEN won 3
Q1
Jr. 13
Jr. 11
Q2
Jr. 7
Jr. 8
Q3
Jr. 11
Watson 6
Q4
Powell 7
Murray 9
Shooting comparison
44%
37-85
FG
48%
38-80
38%
14-37
3PT
50%
13-26
83%
15-18
FT
72%
18-25
Play-by-play · 442 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·0.1
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·0.3
Terance Mann misses tip shot
BKN 103·DEN 107
+0.7pp
- Q4·0.9
Terance Mann offensive rebound
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.1
Michael Porter Jr. misses 24-foot turnaround jump shot
BKN 103·DEN 107
+1pp
- Q4·2.6
Danny Wolf enters the game for Drake Powell
·
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.6
Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Day'Ron Sharpe
·
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.6
Spencer Jones enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.6
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas
·
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.6
Nets Full timeout
BKN 103·DEN 107
- Q4·2.6
Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 103·DEN 107
−1pp
- Q4·2.6
Jonas Valanciunas makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 103·DEN 106
- Q4·2.6
Nic Claxton personal foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 103·DEN 105
+5pp
- Q4·4.4
Nuggets Full timeout
BKN 103·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Drake Powell enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.
·
BKN 103·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
BKN 103·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Nuggets Full timeout
BKN 103·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Terance Mann makes free throw 3 of 3
BKN 103·DEN 105
+5pp
- Q4·4.4
Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Danny Wolf
·
BKN 102·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
BKN 102·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
BKN 102·DEN 105
- Q4·4.4
Terance Mann makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
BKN 102·DEN 105
−5pp
- Q4·4.4
Terance Mann makes free throw 1 of 3
BKN 101·DEN 105
−0.7pp
- Q4·4.4
Peyton Watson shooting foul
BKN 100·DEN 105
−0.8pp
- Q4·13.3
Nolan Traore defensive rebound
BKN 100·DEN 105
+0.5pp
- Q4·15.0
Peyton Watson misses free throw 2 of 2
BKN 100·DEN 105
−4pp
- Q4·15.0
Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 100·DEN 105
- Q4·15.0
Nolan Traore personal take foul
BKN 100·DEN 104
+4pp
- Q4·20.2
Danny Wolf makes 4-foot two point shot
BKN 100·DEN 104
−3pp
Betting line
DEN -6.5·O/U 209.5·BKN +200/DEN -245
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets held off Brooklyn Nets, 107–103. Decided by 4.
BKN +6.5 cashed (DEN won by 4). Total cleared the 209.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN · FUSG%29.995
Nic ClaxtonCHI · CCONT7.392
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Day'Ron SharpeBKN · CTS%63.890
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · BKN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs BKN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN22.7± 6.2high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Julius RandleBKN7.2± 2.1high
- Michael Porter Jr.BKN6.9± 5.2high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
- Ben SarafBKN3.7± 1.9high
Blocks
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Josh MinottBKN0.9± 1.2high
- Trevon ScottBKN0.8± 1.3low
Steals
- Josh MinottBKN1.3± 1.0high
- Trevon ScottBKN1.3± 1.8low
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
BKN
league avg
DEN
52.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
44.3%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
105.9
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
15.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1