NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CHA

CHA

21-28

123121

DAL

19-29

NBAThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesCHA leads series 1-0VegasCHA -3.5

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

31.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

40.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 35pp · 4th Quarter · 4.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	38	17	7-17	1-5	2-2	+11	8	8
M. DiabateF · #14	32	10	5-9	—	—	0	5	3
B. MillerF · #24	27	23	7-13	3-7	6-6	+12	6	2
L. BallG · #1	31	22	8-17	6-10	—	+9	3	9
K. KnueppelG · #7	36	34	10-16	8-12	6-6	+7	4	3
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	10	2	1-2	—	—	-9	3	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	5	1-2	—	3-4	0	3	0
C. SextonG · #8	20	8	3-10	2-5	—	-7	2	2
J. GreenG · #10	15	2	1-2	—	—	-8	3	1
S. JamesG · #4	16	0	0-3	0-2	—	-5	8	0
Team		123	43-91	20-41	17-18		45	28
DNP: P. Connaughton, T. Mann, L. McNeeley

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. MartinF · #16	27	6	2-6	2-2	—	-11	11	2
D. GaffordF · #21	25	5	2-4	—	1-2	-8	4	3
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	35	14	6-19	1-5	1-1	-5	9	3
C. FlaggF · #32	38	49	20-29	3-5	6-6	+2	10	3
M. ChristieG · #00	29	13	6-15	1-7	—	-13	3	3
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	5	0	—	—	—	-3	2	0
M. CisseC · #30	17	3	0-1	—	3-4	+11	5	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	27	16	6-15	4-11	—	+3	3	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	21	15	6-10	0-1	3-3	+11	1	6
R. NembhardG · #9	9	0	0-3	0-1	—	-2	1	4
J. HardyG · #1	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	+5	1	1
Team		121	48-103	11-33	14-16		50	26
DNP: D. Russell, M. Kelly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

43-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-103

FG %

20-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-33

17-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 1-0

Jan 30

CHA123@

DAL121today

Mar 4

DAL90@

CHA117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-15561%

DAL+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -3.5↗SpreadBet CHA -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat DAL 123-121. K. Knueppel paced them with 34 PTS, 4 REB, 3 AST. CHA outscored the other side 33-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 26 REB · 25 AST

GS 93

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 19 REB · 3 AST

GS 13

DALstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 37 REB · 14 AST

GS 71

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 2:07 · 116-113

+18pp→ 70% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 38.5 · 121-118

+25pp→ 73% WP

Brandon Miller · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 4.1 · 121-121

+35pp→ 89% WP

Cooper Flagg · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	33	26	34	30	123
DAL	20	38	35	28	121

Period scoring

CHA won 2 · DAL won 2

Knueppel 12

Williams 6

Knueppel 7

Flagg 23

Ball 12

Flagg 15

Miller 7

Flagg 9

CHA

DAL

Shooting comparison

CHA

DAL

47%

43-91

47%

48-103

49%

20-41

3PT

33%

11-33

94%

17-18

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 484 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 123·DAL 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 123·DAL 121
Q4·0.0
Mavericks offensive team rebound
CHA 123·DAL 121
Q4·0.0
Cooper Flagg misses 20-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHA 123·DAL 121
−12pp
Q4·4.1
Mavericks Full timeout
CHA 123·DAL 121
Q4·4.1
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 123·DAL 121
+4pp
Q4·4.1
Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 122·DAL 121
Q4·4.1
Daniel Gafford enters the game for Caleb Martin
·
CHA 122·DAL 121
Q4·4.1
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 122·DAL 121
−3pp
Q4·4.1
Cooper Flagg shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 121·DAL 121
−35pp
Q4·7.6
Cooper Flagg bad pass turnover (Kon Knueppel steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 121·DAL 121
−10pp
Q4·24.9
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
CHA 121·DAL 121
+1pp
Q4·27.1
Miles Bridges misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 121·DAL 121
+4pp
Q4·33.1
Caleb Martin enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
CHA 121·DAL 121
Q4·33.1
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
CHA 121·DAL 121
Q4·33.1
Brandon Miller enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 121·DAL 121
Q4·33.1
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 121·DAL 121
Q4·33.5
Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
CHA 121·DAL 121
−6pp
Q4·38.5
Collin Sexton enters the game for Brandon Miller
·
CHA 121·DAL 118
Q4·38.5
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 121·DAL 118
Q4·38.5
Mavericks Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
CHA 121·DAL 118
+29pp
Q4·38.5
Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 121·DAL 118
−25pp
Q4·1:01
Max Christie makes 24-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 118·DAL 118
+22pp
Q4·1:08
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
CHA 118·DAL 115
+3pp
Q4·1:10
LaMelo Ball misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHA 118·DAL 115
+7pp
Q4·1:31
Brandon Miller defensive rebound
CHA 118·DAL 115
−2pp
Q4·1:31
Brandon Miller blocks P.J. Washington 's 5-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
CHA 118·DAL 115
−7pp
Q4·1:44
Moussa Diabate makes 1-foot dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHA 118·DAL 115
−13pp
Q4·1:56
(01:56) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
CHA 116·DAL 115
+5pp
Q4·1:56
Moussa Diabate defensive goaltending violation
CHA 116·DAL 115

Betting line

CHA -3.5·O/U 225.5·CHA -155/DAL +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 123–121. Decided by 2.

DAL +3.5 cashed (CHA won by 2). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

DAL

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR