NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18HOU

HOU

29-17

10486

ATL

24-26

NBAThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesHOU leads series 1-0VegasHOU -6.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

CJ McCollum

G · #3

13.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	34	31	12-22	3-8	4-4	+12	5	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	32	14	5-12	2-6	2-2	+15	8	3
A. SengunC · #28	28	9	3-14	—	3-4	+5	13	4
J. OkogieG · #20	34	10	3-6	3-5	1-2	+14	10	1
A. ThompsonG · #1	35	9	4-9	—	1-4	+13	7	5
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
J. TateF · #8	19	4	2-6	0-2	—	+5	3	0
I. CrawfordF · #27	2	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	18	10	4-4	—	2-2	+17	7	2
A. HolidayG · #0	8	4	1-4	1-2	1-2	+1	2	0
J. DavisonG · #4	2	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
R. SheppardG · #15	26	13	5-14	3-7	—	+20	4	4
Team		104	39-92	12-31	14-20		59	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	31	17	7-13	2-5	1-2	-17	2	2
C. KolokoC · #35	26	6	3-7	0-2	—	-13	7	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	35	20	6-16	3-8	5-5	-26	5	1
V. KrejciG · #27	27	9	4-7	1-3	—	+2	4	1
D. DanielsG · #5	31	4	2-12	0-3	—	+2	6	7
Bench
M. GueyeF · #18	21	2	1-8	0-3	—	-6	3	2
A. NewellF · #14	20	5	2-8	1-4	—	-11	7	0
C. McCollumG · #3	31	23	9-19	5-11	—	-20	5	2
L. KennardG · #4	16	0	0-3	—	—	-5	7	1
K. WallaceG · #2	2	0	—	—	—	+4	0	1
Team		86	34-93	12-39	6-7		46	19
DNP: J. Johnson, Z. Risacher

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

39-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

34-93

FG %

12-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-39

14-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

6-7

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

Jan 30

HOU104@

ATL86today

Mar 21

ATL95@

HOU117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-27073%

ATL+22031%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗SpreadBet HOU -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat ATL 104-86. K. Durant paced them with 31 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. HOU outscored the other side 35-24 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 43 REB · 17 AST

GS 72

Bench(7)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

ATLstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

56 PTS · 24 REB · 13 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL3rd Quarter · 11:22 · 43-45

+7pp→ 50% WP

Corey Kispert · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)

HOU3rd Quarter · 10:42 · 46-45

+7pp→ 57% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)

ATL3rd Quarter · 4:34 · 63-60

+7pp→ 31% WP

Corey Kispert · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	23	20	35	26	104
ATL	23	19	24	20	86

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · ATL won 0

Durant 6

Alexander-Walker 10

Durant 6

McCollum 8

Durant 16

Kispert 9

Capela 8

Alexander-Walker 8

HOU

ATL

Shooting comparison

HOU

ATL

42%

39-92

37%

34-93

39%

12-31

3PT

31%

12-39

70%

14-20

86%

6-7

Play-by-play · 464 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·15.2
Aaron Holiday defensive rebound
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·18.4
Asa Newell misses 8-foot two point shot
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·35.3
Asa Newell defensive rebound
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·38.2
Jeff Green misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·58.0
Vit Krejci makes 11-foot two point shot (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
HOU 104·ATL 86
Q4·1:08
Aaron Holiday personal foul
HOU 104·ATL 84
Q4·1:23
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
HOU 104·ATL 84
Q4·1:26
Aaron Holiday misses driving layup
HOU 104·ATL 84
Q4·1:45
Corey Kispert makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
·
HOU 104·ATL 84
Q4·1:51
Asa Newell defensive rebound
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·1:56
Jae'Sean Tate misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Jae'Sean Tate enters the game for Amen Thompson
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Isaiah Crawford enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
JD Davison enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Jeff Green enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Kevin Durant
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Vit Krejci enters the game for Christian Koloko
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Asa Newell enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:09
Christian Koloko personal take foul
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:15
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:18
Dyson Daniels misses 7-foot two point shot
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:39
Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)
·
HOU 104·ATL 82
Q4·2:51
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
HOU 101·ATL 82
Q4·2:56
Christian Koloko misses 8-foot floating jump shot
HOU 101·ATL 82
Q4·3:09
Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)
·
HOU 101·ATL 82
Q4·3:22
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
HOU 98·ATL 82

Betting line

HOU -6.5·O/U 224.5·HOU -270/ATL +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 104–86.

HOU -6.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 34.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Josh OkogieHOU · G
DEFL393
Kevin DurantHOU · F
TOUCHES6891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

ATL

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

47.2%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR