NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

SAC

12-37

111113

PHI

26-21

NBAThu, Jan 29FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasPHI -9.5

SAC · top performer

DeMar DeRozan

G · #10

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

36.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 1.3

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	34	8	4-7	0-2	—	-1	13	3
D. SabonisF · #11	28	14	6-10	0-1	2-4	-5	7	3
D. DeRozanG · #10	38	25	9-15	1-1	6-8	+2	4	8
D. SchroderG · #17	31	27	9-16	5-9	4-4	-12	4	2
N. CliffordG · #5	27	2	1-7	0-1	—	+2	6	2
Bench
D. CardwellC · #32	14	0	—	—	—	-7	4	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	19	8	3-4	0-1	2-2	+4	7	0
Z. LaVineG · #8	29	17	5-16	2-6	5-5	-3	1	3
K. EllisG · #23	20	10	4-7	2-5	—	+10	0	0
Team		111	41-82	10-26	19-23		46	21
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Saric, D. Eubanks, D. Carter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	36	15	7-15	1-4	—	+5	2	5
J. EmbiidC · #21	36	37	13-21	1-2	10-13	+9	5	8
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	37	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+5	3	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	41	40	12-18	4-9	12-13	+8	4	8
V. EdgecombeG · #77	35	5	2-7	1-5	—	0	5	3
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-4	1	0
D. BarlowF · #25	21	5	1-1	—	3-3	-5	1	0
A. DrummondC · #1	4	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
A. BonaC · #30	8	0	0-1	—	—	-3	2	0
J. McCainG · #20	15	4	2-4	0-2	—	-1	1	1
Team		113	39-72	8-25	27-31		24	25
DNP: T. Watford, J. Walker, K. Lowry, E. Gordon, Q. Grimes

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

41-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-72

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-25

19-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Jan 30

SAC111@

PHI113today

Mar 20

PHI139@

SAC118

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+32024%

PHI-41080%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -9.5↗SpreadBet PHI -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat SAC 113-111. T. Maxey led the way with 40 points and 8 assists. SAC outscored the other side 38-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 34 REB · 18 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 12 REB · 3 AST

GS 22

PHIstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 19 REB · 24 AST

GS 89

Bench(5)

12 PTS · 5 REB · 1 AST

GS 7

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC3rd Quarter · 1:49 · 81-81

+18pp→ 35% WP

Zach LaVine · misses 17-foot pullup jump shot

SAC4th Quarter · 1:21 · 111-109

+18pp→ 57% WP

Zach LaVine · makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 1.3 · 111-113

+43pp→ 97% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes 2-foot two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	25	29	38	19	111
PHI	28	32	28	25	113

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · PHI won 3

DeRozan 10

Embiid 10

DeRozan 11

Maxey 43

Sabonis 9

LaVine 23

LaVine 6

Maxey 11

SAC

PHI

Shooting comparison

SAC

PHI

50%

41-82

54%

39-72

38%

10-26

3PT

32%

8-25

83%

19-23

87%

27-31

Play-by-play · 442 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 111·PHI 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 111·PHI 113
+4pp
Q4·1.3
Zach LaVine enters the game for Precious Achiuwa
·
SAC 111·PHI 113
−4pp
Q4·1.3
Zach LaVine defensive rebound
SAC 111·PHI 113
Q4·1.3
Tyrese Maxey misses free throw 1 of 1
SAC 111·PHI 113
−2pp
Q4·1.3
Zach LaVine enters the game for
SAC 111·PHI 113
Q4·1.3
DeMar DeRozan enters the game for Dylan Cardwell
·
SAC 111·PHI 113
Q4·1.3
Precious Achiuwa shooting foul
SAC 111·PHI 113
+2pp
Q4·1.3
Tyrese Maxey makes 2-foot two point shot (Joel Embiid assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 111·PHI 113
+43pp
Q4·5.2
Precious Achiuwa enters the game for DeMar DeRozan
·
SAC 111·PHI 111
Q4·5.2
Keon Ellis enters the game for Zach LaVine
·
SAC 111·PHI 111
Q4·5.2
76ers Full timeout
SAC 111·PHI 111
Q4·5.2
Joel Embiid defensive rebound
SAC 111·PHI 111
+0.9pp
Q4·6.0
DeMar DeRozan misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
SAC 111·PHI 111
+0.5pp
Q4·27.3
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 111·PHI 111
−5pp
Q4·27.3
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 111·PHI 110
+2pp
Q4·27.3
Zach LaVine shooting foulBIG MOMENT
SAC 111·PHI 109
+14pp
Q4·32.5
Paul George defensive rebound
SAC 111·PHI 109
+3pp
Q4·36.2
Dennis Schroder misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 111·PHI 109
−7pp
Q4·1:02
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
SAC 111·PHI 109
−3pp
Q4·1:02
Joel Embiid misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
SAC 111·PHI 109
−10pp
Q4·1:21
Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)BIG MOMENT
·
SAC 111·PHI 109
−18pp
Q4·1:31
Kings offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
SAC 108·PHI 109
−8pp
Q4·1:35
Zach LaVine misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
SAC 108·PHI 109
+8pp
Q4·1:57
Kings Full timeout
SAC 108·PHI 109
Q4·1:57
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
SAC 108·PHI 109
+8pp
Q4·2:10
76ers defensive team rebound
SAC 108·PHI 107
+2pp
Q4·2:11
Domantas Sabonis misses layup
SAC 108·PHI 107
−3pp
Q4·2:29
DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
SAC 108·PHI 107
−2pp
Q4·2:30
Dylan Cardwell blocks Joel Embiid's driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
SAC 108·PHI 107
+17pp

Betting line

PHI -9.5·O/U 229.5·SAC +320/PHI -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Sacramento Kings, 113–111. Decided by 2.

SAC +9.5 cashed (PHI won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high
VJ EdgecombePHI
1.1± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

PHI

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.9%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

114.3

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR