GS
27-22
UTAH
15-33
GS · top performer
Moses Moody
G · #4
26
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
UTAH · top performer
Brice Sensabaugh
F · #28
22
Pts
0
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 6:13
NBA · Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-6 | — | +17 | 2 | 6 | |
| 24 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-2 | — | +22 | 5 | 8 | |
| 28 | 27 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 9-10 | +16 | 1 | 2 | |
| 26 | 26 | 9-15 | 5-9 | 3-4 | +28 | 5 | 0 | |
| 28 | 11 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 6-6 | +16 | 8 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -7 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -7 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 16 | 6-7 | 2-3 | 2-3 | +6 | 3 | 4 | |
| 17 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | — | -3 | 6 | 2 | |
| 17 | 13 | 5-8 | 3-6 | — | -11 | 3 | 4 | |
| 23 | 12 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 4-5 | +13 | 2 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | — | — | 1-2 | -7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 13 | 5-8 | 3-6 | — | -3 | 5 | 3 | |
| Team | 140 | 46-86 | 23-54 | 25-30 | 42 | 39 | ||
| DNP: J. Kuminga, G. Payton II | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 18 | 6-14 | 1-6 | 5-5 | -15 | 3 | 2 | |
| 23 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -30 | 5 | 5 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | -16 | 2 | 0 | |
| 33 | 19 | 6-15 | 3-4 | 4-6 | -22 | 7 | 7 | |
| 34 | 19 | 8-15 | 3-7 | — | -14 | 7 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 6 | 2-5 | — | 2-2 | +3 | 5 | 6 | |
| 17 | 12 | 5-5 | 2-2 | — | +8 | 4 | 3 | |
| 26 | 22 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 6-7 | -7 | 0 | 3 | |
| 30 | 12 | 5-10 | 0-3 | 2-2 | -2 | 3 | 6 | |
| 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | — | +15 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 124 | 44-90 | 15-38 | 21-24 | 37 | 38 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, T. Hendricks | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
49
39
Ast
38
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
UTAH
Home
46-86
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-90
53
FG %
49
23-54
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-38
25-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-24
39
Assists
38
20
Turnovers
19
Season series
GS leads series 3-0
UTAH117@GS134UTAH114@GS123GS140@UTAH124todayGS116@UTAH119Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
242.5
High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS-29875%UTAH+24029%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
242.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
GS beat UTAH 140-124. M. Moody paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 0 AST. GS outscored the other side 34-24 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
UTAH vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
73 PTS · 21 REB · 23 AST
GS 71
Bench(8)
67 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST
GS 64
UTAHstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST
GS 54
Bench(5)
55 PTS · 13 REB · 20 AST
GS 55
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactMoses Moody · misses 2-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 34 | 34 | 33 | 39 | 140 |
| UTAH | 24 | 31 | 38 | 31 | 124 |
Period scoring
GS won 3 · UTAH won 1
Q1
Curry 10
George 5
Q2
Hield 11
Melton 19
Q3
Curry 12
Sensabaugh 11
Q4
Moody 9
Sensabaugh 8
Shooting comparison
53%
46-86
FG
49%
44-90
43%
23-54
3PT
39%
15-38
83%
25-30
FT
88%
21-24
Play-by-play · 490 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 140·UTAH 124
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 140·UTAH 124
- Q4·23.4
Kyle Filipowski makes running layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)
·
GS 140·UTAH 124
- Q4·26.7
Trayce Jackson-Davis bad pass turnover (Walter Clayton Jr. steals)
·
GS 140·UTAH 122
- Q4·30.1
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
GS 140·UTAH 122
- Q4·34.2
Will Richard misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 140·UTAH 122
- Q4·52.1
Isaiah Collier makes 2-foot running dunk
GS 140·UTAH 122
- Q4·53.7
Ace Bailey defensive rebound
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·59.2
Buddy Hield misses 23-foot running jump shot
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·1:03
Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass turnover (Will Richard steals)
·
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·1:20
Jazz defensive team rebound
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·1:21
Malevy Leons misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·1:45
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 3 of 3
GS 140·UTAH 120
- Q4·1:45
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 2 of 3
GS 140·UTAH 119
- Q4·1:45
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 3
GS 140·UTAH 118
- Q4·1:45
Will Richard shooting foul
GS 140·UTAH 117
- Q4·1:51
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 4-foot running dunk (Buddy Hield assists)
·
GS 140·UTAH 117
- Q4·1:55
Kyle Filipowski bad pass turnover (Will Richard steals)
·
GS 138·UTAH 117
- Q4·1:57
Trayce Jackson-Davis lost ball turnover (Isaiah Collier steals)
·
GS 138·UTAH 117
- Q4·2:17
Ace Bailey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
GS 138·UTAH 117
- Q4·2:29
Warriors Full timeout
GS 138·UTAH 114
- Q4·2:29
Will Richard out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 138·UTAH 114
- Q4·2:51
Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
GS 138·UTAH 114
- Q4·3:03
Buddy Hield makes 2-foot two point shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
GS 138·UTAH 111
- Q4·3:19
Ace Bailey makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
GS 136·UTAH 111
- Q4·3:29
Pat Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 136·UTAH 109
- Q4·3:29
Buddy Hield enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
GS 135·UTAH 109
- Q4·3:29
Will Richard enters the game for Moses Moody
·
GS 135·UTAH 109
- Q4·3:29
Walter Clayton Jr. enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic
·
GS 135·UTAH 109
- Q4·3:29
Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Keyonte George
·
GS 135·UTAH 109
Betting line
GS -8.5·O/U 242.5·GS -298/UTAH +240
Recap · NBA
olden State Warriors went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 140–124.
GS -8.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 242.5 OVER by 21.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Stephen CurryGS · GUSG%31.597
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · GTOUCHES78.797
Draymond GreenGS · FCONT7.593
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · FUSG%27.492
Jusuf NurkicUTAH · CDEFL2.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
UTAH vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Oscar TshiebweUTAH8.5± 5.5high
- Kyle FilipowskiUTAH8.1± 2.6high
Assists
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Ace BaileyUTAH1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
UTAH
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.6%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶46.7%
114.5
PPG
114.9
▶117.6
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.6
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.0