ORL
24-22
MIA
25-23
ORL · top performer
Anthony Black
G · #0
26
Pts
7
Reb
5
Ast
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
21
Pts
12
Reb
7
Ast
Biggest swing: 36pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:46
NBA · Orlando Magic at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 38 | 31 | 11-23 | 1-3 | 8-10 | +27 | 12 | 4 | |
| 27 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-5 | — | +6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 37 | 23 | 10-16 | 3-6 | — | -5 | 1 | 5 | |
| 29 | 16 | 6-15 | 1-7 | 3-4 | -3 | 5 | 4 | |
| 37 | 26 | 11-19 | 4-7 | 0-1 | +19 | 7 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 4 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | — | -3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +4 | 5 | 3 | |
| 21 | 12 | 5-9 | 2-5 | — | +3 | 2 | 4 | |
| 8 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-2 | — | -16 | 3 | 1 | |
| 19 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | — | +9 | 1 | 9 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 133 | 52-104 | 16-38 | 13-17 | 42 | 36 | ||
| DNP: G. Bitadze, J. Howard | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 16 | 6-11 | 1-3 | 3-3 | -15 | 5 | 3 | |
| 39 | 21 | 7-14 | 4-7 | 3-4 | -4 | 12 | 7 | |
| 28 | 22 | 8-17 | 2-7 | 4-4 | -7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 28 | 8 | 3-7 | — | 2-2 | -9 | 9 | 2 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 23 | 7-11 | 6-9 | 3-4 | +8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 6-10 | 1-2 | — | +2 | 4 | 4 | |
| 19 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| 22 | 13 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 6-6 | -7 | 3 | 7 | |
| Team | 124 | 44-88 | 15-34 | 21-23 | 48 | 27 | ||
| DNP: M. Gardner, K. Johnson, D. Mitchell, T. Herro | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
50
FG %
50
36
Ast
27
Team stats
ORL
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
52-104
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-88
50
FG %
50
16-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-34
13-17
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-23
36
Assists
27
7
Turnovers
18
Season series
ORL leads series 4-0
MIA121@ORL125MIA105@ORL106MIA108@ORL117ORL133@MIA124todayORL121@MIA117Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIA -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
232.5
Standard · +6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ORL+12445%MIA-14860%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
232.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
ORL beat MIA 133-124. A. Black paced them with 26 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. ORL outscored the other side 40-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs ORL
Starters vs bench
production by unitORLstarters 80% of ptsStarters(5)
106 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST
GS 89
Bench(6)
27 PTS · 12 REB · 17 AST
GS 36
MIAstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST
GS 54
Bench(5)
55 PTS · 18 REB · 13 AST
GS 46
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJonathan Isaac · misses 1-foot tip shot
Bam Adebayo · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dru Smith assists)
Nikola Jovic · misses 1-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 34 | 25 | 40 | 34 | 133 |
| MIA | 27 | 41 | 20 | 36 | 124 |
Period scoring
ORL won 2 · MIA won 2
Q1
Black 9
Powell 6
Q2
Suggs 5
Fontecchio 14
Q3
Banchero 13
Powell 5
Q4
Bane 10
Powell 28
Shooting comparison
50%
52-104
FG
50%
44-88
42%
16-38
3PT
44%
15-34
76%
13-17
FT
91%
21-23
Play-by-play · 477 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 133·MIA 124
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 133·MIA 124
- Q4·2.9
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 133·MIA 124
- Q4·2.9
Anthony Black blocks Norman Powell 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
ORL 133·MIA 124
- Q4·9.3
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 133·MIA 124
- Q4·9.3
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
ORL 132·MIA 124
- Q4·9.3
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 132·MIA 124
- Q4·9.3
Andrew Wiggins personal take foul
ORL 131·MIA 124
- Q4·12.4
Jalen Suggs enters the game for Jonathan Isaac
·
ORL 131·MIA 124
- Q4·13.4
Norman Powell makes 2-foot two point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)
·
ORL 131·MIA 124
- Q4·16.8
Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jalen Suggs
·
ORL 131·MIA 122
- Q4·16.8
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.
·
ORL 131·MIA 122
−3pp
- Q4·16.8
Heat Full timeout
ORL 131·MIA 122
- Q4·16.8
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 131·MIA 122
- Q4·16.8
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 130·MIA 122
- Q4·16.8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. personal take foul
ORL 129·MIA 122
−0.6pp
- Q4·26.3
Anthony Black defensive rebound
ORL 129·MIA 122
−0.6pp
- Q4·31.1
Jalen Suggs blocks Norman Powell 's 2-foot running layup
·
ORL 129·MIA 122
- Q4·35.8
Norman Powell defensive rebound
ORL 129·MIA 122
- Q4·36.8
Norman Powell blocks Paolo Banchero 's 3-foot two point shot
·
ORL 129·MIA 122
+2pp
- Q4·37.7
Paolo Banchero offensive rebound
ORL 129·MIA 122
−1pp
- Q4·38.8
Andrew Wiggins blocks Desmond Bane 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
ORL 129·MIA 122
+0.7pp
- Q4·55.1
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
ORL 129·MIA 122
−0.7pp
- Q4·58.8
Norman Powell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 129·MIA 122
−2pp
- Q4·1:06
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 129·MIA 122
- Q4·1:06
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 128·MIA 122
+2pp
- Q4·1:06
Paolo Banchero misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
ORL 128·MIA 122
−5pp
- Q4·1:06
(01:06) [Heat] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Heat] charged with a timeout
ORL 128·MIA 122
+4pp
- Q4·1:06
Heat Full timeout
ORL 128·MIA 122
+3pp
- Q4·1:06
Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul
ORL 128·MIA 122
−4pp
Betting line
MIA -3.5·O/U 232.5·ORL +124/MIA -148
Recap · NBA
rlando Magic went into Miami Heat and beat them, 133–124.
ORL +3.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 24.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Paolo BancheroORL · FDRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · CCONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · GDEFL3.797- Anthony BlackORL · GDEFL3.797
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · FDRIVES13.295
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · ORL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs ORL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 135 high confidence
Points
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Paolo BancheroORL23.9± 9.4high
- Desmond BaneORL18.8± 7.4high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Paolo BancheroORL8.3± 2.3high
Assists
- Paolo BancheroORL6.0± 2.3high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Goga BitadzeORL1.4± 1.2high
- Wendell Carter Jr.ORL1.3± 0.7high
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Jalen SuggsORL1.8± 1.5high
- Anthony BlackORL1.5± 1.8high
- Desmond BaneORL1.5± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
ORL
league avg
MIA
52.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶54.2%
45.9%
FG%
47.0
▶46.8%
114.2
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
26.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
13.7
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.0