NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3IND

CHI

23-24

110113

IND

12-36

NBAWed, Jan 28FinalSeriesIND leads series 3-0VegasCHI -1.5

CHI · top performer

Nikola Vucevic

C · #9

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 55pp · 4th Quarter · 2.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. OkoroF · #35	23	5	2-6	1-3	—	+7	2	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	32	20	7-11	4-6	2-2	-8	8	0
N. VucevicC · #9	30	25	10-17	3-4	2-2	-11	9	4
C. WhiteG · #0	32	14	5-15	1-5	3-4	-9	2	4
J. GiddeyG · #3	29	10	3-8	0-3	4-4	-1	4	7
Bench
J. SmithF · #25	28	13	5-9	3-4	0-1	-3	11	3
P. WilliamsF · #44	17	0	0-2	0-2	—	+2	3	1
D. TerryF · #7	3	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #15	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
K. HuerterG · #13	17	4	2-5	—	0-1	+2	4	4
A. DosunmuG · #11	29	19	8-15	0-3	3-4	+3	4	4
Team		110	42-88	12-30	14-18		47	27
DNP: J. Carter, Olbrich

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	36	20	6-16	1-5	7-8	+12	3	5
J. WalkerF · #5	22	16	6-8	2-3	2-2	-14	0	0
A. NembhardG · #2	34	18	6-14	2-7	4-4	+10	6	9
A. NesmithG · #23	34	14	5-9	3-5	1-1	+13	4	4
J. FurphyG · #12	22	2	0-4	0-1	2-2	+2	7	2
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	3	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
J. HuffC · #32	23	10	4-10	1-5	1-2	+11	7	1
M. PotterC · #11	17	7	2-5	2-4	1-2	-3	3	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	16	8	4-7	—	—	-7	4	6
B. SheppardG · #26	6	3	1-2	1-1	—	+1	1	1
B. MathurinG · #00	28	15	4-10	3-5	4-4	-7	8	1
Team		113	38-85	15-36	22-25		43	30
DNP: T. Bradley, E. Thompson, Q. Jackson, K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

IND

Home

42-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-85

FG %

12-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-36

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND leads series 3-0

Nov 30

CHI101@

IND103

Dec 6

IND120@

CHI105

Jan 29

CHI110@

IND113today

Apr 2

IND145@

CHI126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI-12556%

IND+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat CHI 113-110. A. Nembhard led with 18 PTS, 6 REB, 9 AST. IND outscored the other side 37-25 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

INDstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 20 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 23 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 2:00 · 105-105

+18pp→ 48% WP

Jay Huff · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 33.5 · 110-109

+24pp→ 50% WP

Nikola Vucevic · makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Coby White assists)

IND4th Quarter · 2.9 · 110-111

+55pp→ 90% WP

Aaron Nesmith · blocks Coby White's driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	33	20	32	25	110
IND	24	25	27	37	113

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · IND won 2

Buzelis 13

Walker 8

Vucevic 6

Vucevic 5

Vucevic 7

Mathurin 11

Dosunmu 9

Siakam 13

CHI

IND

Shooting comparison

CHI

IND

48%

42-88

45%

38-85

40%

12-30

3PT

42%

15-36

78%

14-18

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 110·IND 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 110·IND 113
Q4·1.0
Josh Giddey bad pass turnover (Andrew Nembhard steals)
·
CHI 110·IND 113
+4pp
Q4·2.3
Johnny Furphy makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 110·IND 113
−2pp
Q4·2.3
Johnny Furphy makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 110·IND 112
+0.5pp
Q4·2.3
Ayo Dosunmu personal take foul
CHI 110·IND 111
+4pp
Q4·2.3
Johnny Furphy defensive rebound
CHI 110·IND 111
+3pp
Q4·2.9
Aaron Nesmith blocks Coby White's driving layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 110·IND 111
+55pp
Q4·9.6
Pascal Siakam personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 110·IND 111
−31pp
Q4·13.9
Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff
·
CHI 110·IND 111
Q4·13.9
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 110·IND 111
Q4·13.9
Aaron Nesmith makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 110·IND 111
+17pp
Q4·33.5
Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Coby White assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 110·IND 109
−24pp
Q4·38.9
Josh Giddey enters the game for Jalen Smith
·
CHI 107·IND 109
Q4·38.9
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 107·IND 109
Q4·39.7
Andrew Nembhard makes 11-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
CHI 107·IND 109
+15pp
Q4·59.8
Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
·
CHI 107·IND 107
+2pp
Q4·1:02
Coby White misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 107·IND 107
+6pp
Q4·1:18
Pascal Siakam makes 8-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 107·IND 107
+11pp
Q4·1:36
Coby White makes 16-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Vucevic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 107·IND 105
−8pp
Q4·2:00
Jay Huff makes 28-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 105·IND 105
+18pp
Q4·2:01
Pascal Siakam offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 105·IND 102
+6pp
Q4·2:04
Andrew Nembhard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 105·IND 102
−7pp
Q4·2:14
Nikola Vucevic bad pass turnover (Jay Huff steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 105·IND 102
+7pp
Q4·2:33
Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
CHI 105·IND 102
+11pp
Q4·2:35
Pacers offensive team rebound
CHI 105·IND 99
+3pp
Q4·2:37
Pascal Siakam misses driving layup
CHI 105·IND 99
−4pp
Q4·2:51
Pacers defensive team rebound
CHI 105·IND 99
+0.9pp
Q4·2:54
Ayo Dosunmu misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 105·IND 99
+3pp
Q4·3:09
Coby White defensive rebound
CHI 105·IND 99
−1pp

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 235.5·CHI -125/IND +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers held off Chicago Bulls, 113–110. Decided by 3.

IND +1.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
6.6± 1.9high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium
Pascal SiakamIND
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

IND

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

46.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR