NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PHX

BKN

12-33

102106

PHX

28-19

NBATue, Jan 27FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-0VegasPHX -7.5

BKN · top performer

Michael Porter Jr.

F · #17

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Mark Williams

C · #15

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 69pp · 4th Quarter · 2:02

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	37	36	15-24	6-10	0-1	0	5	3
N. ClaxtonC · #33	29	8	2-6	—	4-6	-9	5	8
T. MannG · #14	30	7	3-5	0-2	1-1	-14	3	2
D. PowellG · #4	8	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
E. DeminG · #8	31	15	5-9	3-7	2-2	-2	5	3
Bench
Z. WilliamsF · #1	28	11	3-9	3-7	2-2	+15	1	5
D. WolfF · #2	14	4	2-6	0-3	—	-3	5	0
D. SharpeC · #20	19	7	3-5	—	1-2	+5	7	2
C. ThomasG · #24	25	11	4-10	0-2	3-5	0	3	3
B. SarafG · #77	19	3	1-1	1-1	—	-3	1	2
Team		102	38-75	13-32	13-19		35	28
DNP: J. Wilson, N. Traore

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	34	7	2-9	0-5	3-3	+1	2	4
D. BrooksF · #3	34	26	9-15	2-5	6-6	+4	3	3
M. WilliamsC · #15	30	27	13-16	—	1-1	+7	6	1
G. AllenG · #8	34	18	7-11	2-4	2-3	+4	3	6
J. GoodwinG · #23	29	4	2-6	0-2	—	-7	9	3
Bench
N. Hayes-DavisF · #21	7	1	0-1	—	1-2	+9	1	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	18	3	1-1	—	1-3	-6	2	1
R. DunnF · #0	21	9	4-6	1-2	—	-7	2	2
R. FlemingF · #20	8	1	0-1	—	1-2	+6	1	1
J. BouyeaG · #17	25	10	5-11	0-2	—	+9	3	1
Team		106	43-77	5-20	15-20		32	22
DNP: N. Richards, K. Maluach

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

38-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-77

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

5-20

13-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-0

Jan 20

PHX126@

BKN117

Jan 28

BKN102@

PHX106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+24529%

PHX-30575%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat BKN 106-102. M. Williams paced them with 27 PTS, 6 REB, 1 AST. PHX outscored the other side 32-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 18 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 29

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 71

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN4th Quarter · 1:14 · 102-104

+24pp→ 43% WP

Ben Saraf · enters the game for Ziaire Williams

PHX4th Quarter · 12.8 · 102-106

+25pp→ 90% WP

Grayson Allen · makes driving layup

BKN4th Quarter · 2:02 · 100-98

+69pp→ 69% WP

Mark Williams · misses tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	29	22	24	27	102
PHX	28	32	22	24	106

Period scoring

BKN won 3 · PHX won 1

Jr. 12

Williams 10

Demin 7

Brooks 11

Jr. 11

Thomas 11

Demin 6

Williams 7

BKN

PHX

Shooting comparison

BKN

PHX

51%

38-75

56%

43-77

41%

13-32

3PT

25%

5-20

68%

13-19

75%

15-20

Play-by-play · 436 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 102·PHX 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 102·PHX 106
+2pp
Q4·5.2
Grayson Allen defensive rebound
BKN 102·PHX 106
+3pp
Q4·9.6
Michael Porter Jr. misses 20-foot jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 106
+5pp
Q4·11.8
Egor Demin enters the game for Danny Wolf
·
BKN 102·PHX 106
Q4·11.8
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Jamaree Bouyea
·
BKN 102·PHX 106
Q4·11.8
Nets Full timeout
BKN 102·PHX 106
Q4·12.8
Grayson Allen makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 106
+25pp
Q4·34.1
shot clock turnover BIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
+12pp
Q4·34.1
Nets offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
−9pp
Q4·34.3
Egor Demin misses 34-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
+10pp
Q4·35.3
Danny Wolf enters the game for Egor Demin
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
Q4·35.3
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jordan GoodwinBIG MOMENT
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
−13pp
Q4·46.0
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Jamaree Bouyea
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
Q4·46.0
Nets Full timeout
BKN 102·PHX 104
+0.9pp
Q4·58.8
Grayson Allen bad pass turnover (Michael Porter Jr. steals)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
−11pp
Q4·1:14
Terance Mann lost ball turnover (Royce O'Neale steals)
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
Q4·1:14
Ben Saraf vs. Dillon Brooks (Jamaree Bouyea gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
BKN 102·PHX 104
+11pp
Q4·1:14
Nets defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
−11pp
Q4·1:14
Grayson Allen misses technical free throwBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
+18pp
Q4·1:14
Ben Saraf enters the game for Ziaire WilliamsBIG MOMENT
· ·
BKN 102·PHX 104
−24pp
Q4·1:14
Michael Porter Jr. technical foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
+9pp
Q4·1:14
Double technical foul: Terance Mann and Royce O'Neale
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
Q4·1:14
Double technical foul: Egor Demin and Grayson AllenBIG MOMENT
·
BKN 102·PHX 104
+8pp
Q4·1:23
Dillon Brooks makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 104
−8pp
Q4·1:23
Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 102·PHX 103
+2pp
Q4·1:23
Egor Demin shooting foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 102
+15pp
Q4·1:26
Michael Porter Jr. lost ball turnover (Jamaree Bouyea steals)BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 102·PHX 102
+9pp
Q4·1:39
Grayson Allen makes 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BKN 102·PHX 102
+8pp
Q4·1:52
Ziaire Williams makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
BKN 102·PHX 100
+8pp

Betting line

PHX -7.5·O/U 210.5·BKN +245/PHX -305

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Brooklyn Nets, 106–102. Decided by 4.

BKN +7.5 cashed (PHX won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 210.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
6.9± 5.2high
Day'Ron SharpeBKN
6.5± 2.5high

Assists

Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Ben SarafBKN
3.7± 1.9high
Julius RandleBKN
3.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Trevon ScottBKN
0.8± 1.3low
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high
Trevon ScottBKN
1.3± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

PHX

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

45.5%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

112.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR