DET
34-11
DEN
31-16
DET · top performer
Cade Cunningham
G · #2
22
Pts
3
Reb
11
Ast
DEN · top performer
Jamal Murray
G · #27
24
Pts
5
Reb
10
Ast
Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 56.9
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 22 | 10-15 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +6 | 8 | 3 | |
| 23 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-8 | — | +4 | 3 | 3 | |
| 30 | 14 | 6-10 | — | 2-4 | +5 | 8 | 0 | |
| 36 | 22 | 9-17 | 1-4 | 3-4 | +1 | 3 | 11 | |
| 20 | 14 | 5-7 | — | 4-4 | +14 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 1-1 | -7 | 2 | 0 | |
| 23 | 10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | — | -8 | 3 | 0 | |
| 19 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-3 | -3 | 6 | 1 | |
| 18 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-6 | — | +3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0-8 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 1 | 3 | |
| Team | 109 | 44-94 | 6-31 | 15-18 | 41 | 24 | ||
| DNP: P. Reed, B. Klintman, M. Sasser, C. Lanier | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 12 | 4-5 | 4-5 | — | -4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 31 | 16 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 16 | 1 | |
| 39 | 24 | 7-18 | 0-6 | 10-15 | +8 | 5 | 10 | |
| 16 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 37 | 13 | 6-20 | 1-6 | — | -12 | 3 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 4 | 2-3 | — | — | -4 | 6 | 1 | |
| 32 | 14 | 5-13 | 4-9 | — | +3 | 4 | 3 | |
| 23 | 16 | 7-10 | 0-2 | 2-2 | +7 | 7 | 2 | |
| 12 | 4 | 1-2 | — | 2-2 | -3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 107 | 40-84 | 10-29 | 17-23 | 49 | 22 | ||
| DNP: A. Gordon, H. Tyson, D. Holmes II | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
47
FG %
48
24
Ast
22
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
DEN
Home
44-94
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-84
47
FG %
48
6-31
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-29
15-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
17-23
24
Assists
22
6
Turnovers
15
Season series
DET leads series 1-0
DET109@DEN107todayDEN121@DET124Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -7.5
Half-pt above key 7
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-27874%DEN+22531%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
7.5
0.0 since open
Total
216.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat DEN 109-107. C. Cunningham led with 22 PTS, 3 REB, 11 AST. DET outscored the other side 31-18 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DEN vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
74 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST
GS 71
Bench(5)
35 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST
GS 21
DENstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 30 REB · 16 AST
GS 53
Bench(4)
38 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST
GS 33
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactJalen Duren · shooting foul
Tim Hardaway Jr. · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)
Tobias Harris · makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 31 | 21 | 30 | 27 | 109 |
| DEN | 18 | 28 | 26 | 35 | 107 |
Period scoring
DET won 2 · DEN won 2
Q1
Cunningham 8
Valanciunas 4
Q2
Thompson 6
Brown 8
Q3
Cunningham 8
Jones 9
Q4
Harris 10
Murray 12
Shooting comparison
47%
44-94
FG
48%
40-84
19%
6-31
3PT
34%
10-29
83%
15-18
FT
74%
17-23
Play-by-play · 464 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 109·DEN 107
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 109·DEN 107
−2pp
- Q4·0.7
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DET 109·DEN 107
+0.9pp
- Q4·0.7
Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3
DET 109·DEN 107
−0.9pp
- Q4·0.7
Jalen Duren enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 109·DEN 107
- Q4·0.7
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DET 109·DEN 107
- Q4·0.7
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DET 109·DEN 107
−0.9pp
- Q4·0.7
Jamal Murray misses free throw 2 of 3
DET 109·DEN 107
- Q4·0.7
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3
DET 109·DEN 107
- Q4·0.7
Javonte Green shooting foul
DET 109·DEN 106
−0.6pp
- Q4·2.0
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 109·DEN 106
- Q4·2.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DET 109·DEN 106
- Q4·2.0
Nuggets Full timeout
DET 109·DEN 106
- Q4·2.0
Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 109·DEN 106
+1pp
- Q4·2.0
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 108·DEN 106
- Q4·2.0
Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 108·DEN 106
−0.5pp
- Q4·2.0
Spencer Jones personal take foul
DET 107·DEN 106
- Q4·2.3
Jamal Murray personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DET 107·DEN 106
−8pp
- Q4·3.5
Jamal Murray makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
DET 107·DEN 106
−5pp
- Q4·3.5
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 107·DEN 105
- Q4·3.5
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DET 107·DEN 105
- Q4·3.5
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
DET 107·DEN 105
+10pp
- Q4·3.5
Nuggets offensive team rebound
DET 107·DEN 104
−3pp
- Q4·3.5
Jamal Murray misses free throw 1 of 3
DET 107·DEN 104
- Q4·3.5
Javonte Green shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DET 107·DEN 104
−13pp
- Q4·18.1
Tobias Harris makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 107·DEN 104
−15pp
- Q4·40.8
Jonas Valanciunas makes layup (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 105·DEN 104
+8pp
- Q4·54.3
Duncan Robinson makes driving dunk (Javonte Green assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 105·DEN 102
−9pp
- Q4·56.4
Javonte Green enters the game for Isaiah Stewart
·
DET 103·DEN 102
- Q4·56.4
Pistons Full timeout
DET 103·DEN 102
Betting line
DET -7.5·O/U 216.5·DET -278/DEN +225
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons went into Denver Nuggets and beat them, 109–107. Decided by 2.
DEN +7.5 cashed (DET won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort- Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898- Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.596
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DEN vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Marvin Bagley IIIDEN5.9± 3.4high
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Jamal MurrayDEN6.4± 1.9high
Blocks
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Paul ReedDET0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
- Bruce BrownDEN1.3± 1.5high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.3± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
DEN
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.2%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
▶49.2%
115.9
PPG
114.9
▶121.1
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶28.7
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.1