GS
26-22
MIN
28-19
GS · top performer
Quinten Post
C · #21
13
Pts
5
Reb
0
Ast
MIN · top performer
Rudy Gobert
C · #27
15
Pts
17
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 10:39
NBA · Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 26 | 11 | 5-13 | 1-6 | — | -5 | 10 | 2 | |
| 28 | 13 | 5-12 | 3-7 | — | -13 | 5 | 0 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-12 | 2-7 | — | -13 | 4 | 1 | |
| 34 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 5 | 6 | |
| 28 | 12 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 4-5 | -14 | 7 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 8 | 3-7 | — | 2-4 | -12 | 4 | 1 | |
| 9 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -7 | 5 | 1 | |
| 29 | 5 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 0-2 | -20 | 2 | 3 | |
| 12 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | — | -20 | 1 | 0 | |
| 28 | 4 | 2-9 | 0-6 | — | -11 | 2 | 3 | |
| Team | 83 | 33-95 | 9-39 | 8-13 | 45 | 21 | ||
| DNP: L. Cryer | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 23 | 18 | 7-15 | 1-6 | 3-3 | +13 | 7 | 2 | |
| 30 | 14 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 4-4 | +17 | 3 | 3 | |
| 35 | 15 | 5-8 | — | 5-7 | +22 | 17 | 2 | |
| 21 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 2-2 | +11 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 15 | 5-10 | 5-9 | — | +12 | 4 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 0 | 1 | |
| 10 | 6 | 3-8 | — | — | -2 | 4 | 0 | |
| 25 | 15 | 6-12 | 3-7 | — | +30 | 7 | 3 | |
| 25 | 4 | 1-3 | — | 2-2 | +15 | 3 | 2 | |
| 5 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-4 | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 17 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 2-4 | +19 | 7 | 5 | |
| 5 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 108 | 37-81 | 14-35 | 20-26 | 56 | 29 | ||
| DNP: L. Miller | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
35
FG %
46
21
Ast
29
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
33-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-81
35
FG %
46
9-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-35
8-13
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-26
21
Assists
29
18
Turnovers
22
Season series
MIN leads series 2-1
MIN127@GS120GS0@MIN0GS111@MIN85GS83@MIN108todayMIN127@GS117Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -8.5
Between 7 and 10
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
GS+24029%MIN-29875%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat GS 108-83. R. Gobert led with 15 PTS, 17 REB, 2 AST. MIN outscored the other side 32-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs GS
Starters vs bench
production by unitGSstarters 67% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 31 REB · 13 AST
GS 33
Bench(5)
27 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST
GS 18
MINstarters 59% of ptsStarters(5)
64 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST
GS 54
Bench(7)
44 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRudy Gobert · makes free throw 1 of 2
Brandin Podziemski · misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
Quinten Post · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 20 | 18 | 19 | 26 | 83 |
| MIN | 21 | 32 | 22 | 33 | 108 |
Period scoring
GS won 0 · MIN won 4
Q1
Podziemski 6
Gobert 7
Q2
Post 5
Randle 10
Q3
Santos 5
McDaniels 10
Q4
Leons 6
DiVincenzo 12
Shooting comparison
35%
33-95
FG
46%
37-81
23%
9-39
3PT
40%
14-35
62%
8-13
FT
77%
20-26
Play-by-play · 487 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 83·MIN 108
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 83·MIN 108
- Q4·15.8
Malevy Leons makes driving layup
GS 83·MIN 108
- Q4·22.3
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 81·MIN 108
- Q4·23.6
Malevy Leons misses 9-foot fade away jump shot
GS 81·MIN 108
- Q4·38.2
Joan Beringer makes dunk (Jaylen Clark assists)
·
GS 81·MIN 108
- Q4·42.6
Jaylen Clark defensive rebound
GS 81·MIN 106
- Q4·44.8
Pat Spencer misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
GS 81·MIN 106
- Q4·1:03
Johnny Juzang bad pass turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
·
GS 81·MIN 106
- Q4·1:09
Pat Spencer bad pass turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)
·
GS 81·MIN 106
- Q4·1:26
Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 81·MIN 106
- Q4·1:26
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:26
Johnny Juzang misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:26
Trayce Jackson-Davis loose ball foul
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:26
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:28
Will Richard misses 22-foot three point jumper
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:40
Malevy Leons defensive rebound
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:43
Joan Beringer misses layup
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·1:50
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Pat Spencer assists)
·
GS 81·MIN 105
- Q4·2:04
Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·MIN 105
- Q4·2:04
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:04
Johnny Juzang misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:04
Will Richard personal foul
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:13
Johnny Juzang defensive rebound
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:13
Malevy Leons misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:36
Joan Beringer makes alley oop layup (Joe Ingles assists)
·
GS 79·MIN 104
- Q4·2:50
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 79·MIN 102
- Q4·2:50
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 78·MIN 102
- Q4·2:50
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 78·MIN 102
- Q4·2:50
Joan Beringer shooting foul
GS 78·MIN 102
Betting line
MIN -8.5·O/U 226.5·GS +240/MIN -298
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves held off Golden State Warriors, 108–83. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
MIN -8.5 cashed (won by 25). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 35.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 13 players in cohort- Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Joan BeringerMIN · FTS%68.397- Quinten PostGS · CCONT6.388
Jaden McDanielsMIN · FDRIVES9.886
Brandin PodziemskiGS · GTOUCHES60.386
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Stephen CurryGS25.2± 8.3high
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Kristaps PorzingisGS5.6± 2.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS5.4± 1.6high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Draymond GreenGS6.6± 3.0high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS4.8± 1.7high
Blocks
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Al HorfordGS1.1± 1.3high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- De'Anthony MeltonGS1.5± 1.4high
- Jimmy Butler IIIGS1.5± 1.3high
- Stephen CurryGS1.3± 1.2high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
GS
league avg
MIN
55.1%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.1%
46.2%
FG%
47.0
▶47.6%
114.5
PPG
114.9
▶116.8
28.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
15.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0