NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11LAL

LAL

28-17

129118

CHI

23-23

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriesLAL lead series 1-0VegasLAL -1.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

39.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Nikola Vucevic

C · #9

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 9:21

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	24	9-19	1-4	5-6	-14	5	3
J. LaRaviaF · #12	33	8	3-6	2-4	—	-9	5	3
D. AytonC · #5	22	6	3-6	—	—	-15	2	0
M. SmartG · #36	32	12	3-6	1-3	5-7	+5	2	1
L. DoncicG · #77	38	46	15-25	8-14	8-12	+6	7	12
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	29	23	9-11	4-5	1-2	+22	2	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	17	2	1-3	0-2	—	+21	7	2
D. TimmeF · #17	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. HayesC · #11	23	8	3-4	—	2-2	+26	4	1
G. VincentG · #7	12	0	0-2	0-1	—	+13	1	3
Team		129	46-82	16-33	21-29		35	26
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	37	13	5-7	3-5	0-2	+5	7	0
I. OkoroF · #35	28	7	3-5	1-2	—	+10	1	5
M. BuzelisF · #14	22	11	4-8	2-6	1-2	+9	5	4
N. VucevicC · #9	36	18	6-10	1-3	5-5	-3	11	5
C. WhiteG · #0	31	23	8-13	5-10	2-2	+7	5	6
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	12	7	3-5	1-3	—	-22	0	1
D. TerryF · #7	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
J. PhillipsF · #15	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
J. CarterG · #5	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
K. HuerterG · #13	16	0	0-5	0-5	—	-22	1	1
A. DosunmuG · #11	25	20	8-14	2-6	2-3	-14	3	2
J. GiddeyG · #3	28	19	6-14	3-8	4-4	-23	6	7
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		118	43-82	18-49	14-18		40	31

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

46-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-82

FG %

16-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

21-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 1-0

Jan 27

LAL129@

CHI118today

Mar 13

CHI130@

LAL142

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-12055%

CHI+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗SpreadBet LAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat CHI 129-118. L. Doncic led the way with 46 points and 12 assists. LAL outscored the other side 34-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 21 REB · 19 AST

GS 79

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 35

CHIstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 29 REB · 20 AST

GS 62

Bench(8)

46 PTS · 10 REB · 11 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 7:07 · 81-78

+7pp→ 33% WP

Coby White · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)

LAL3rd Quarter · 5:34 · 83-80

+7pp→ 70% WP

Matas Buzelis · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 5:07 · 114-107

+7pp→ 91% WP

Ayo Dosunmu · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	35	34	35	25	129
CHI	31	25	33	29	118

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · CHI won 1

Doncic 14

Smith 10

James 12

Giddey 8

Doncic 20

White 9

Doncic 9

Vucevic 9

LAL

CHI

Shooting comparison

LAL

CHI

56%

46-82

52%

43-82

48%

16-33

3PT

37%

18-49

72%

21-29

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·10.7
shot clock turnover
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·32.9
Jarred Vanderbilt defensive rebound
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·34.8
Isaac Okoro misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·47.0
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·49.7
Marcus Smart misses free throw 2 of 2
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·49.7
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·49.7
Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·49.7
Jevon Carter enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·49.7
Dalen Terry personal take foul
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·53.3
Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 129·CHI 118
Q4·53.3
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Gabe Vincent enters the game for LeBron James
· ·
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu
·
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Dalen Terry enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Julian Phillips enters the game for Coby White
·
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 129·CHI 117
Q4·53.3
Marcus Smart personal foul
LAL 129·CHI 116
Q4·1:00
Jake LaRavia makes layup (Luka Doncic assists)
·
LAL 129·CHI 116
Q4·1:10
Josh Giddey makes two point shot (Nikola Vucevic assists)
·
LAL 127·CHI 116
Q4·1:14
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
LAL 127·CHI 114
Q4·1:17
Luka Doncic misses 33-foot three point jumper
LAL 127·CHI 114
Q4·1:38
Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 127·CHI 114
Q4·1:38
Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 127·CHI 113
Q4·1:38
Rui Hachimura personal foul
LAL 127·CHI 112
Q4·1:47
LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2
·
LAL 127·CHI 112
Q4·1:47
Isaac Okoro enters the game for Jalen Smith
·
LAL 126·CHI 112
Q4·1:47
LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LAL 126·CHI 112
Q4·1:47
Bulls delay of game violation
LAL 125·CHI 112

Betting line

LAL -1.5·O/U 235.5·LAL -120/CHI +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 129–118.

LAL -1.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

CHI

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR