NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8BOS

POR

23-24

94102

BOS

29-17

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -8.5

POR · top performer

Jerami Grant

F · #9

15.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 6pp · 3rd Quarter · 11:29

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	36	18	6-13	3-9	3-3	-6	8	1
D. ClinganC · #23	28	9	4-9	1-5	0-2	-19	15	1
J. HolidayG · #5	24	14	5-11	3-7	1-2	+3	3	3
S. SharpeG · #17	34	9	3-12	1-6	2-2	-4	5	3
S. CissokoG · #91	25	4	1-2	0-1	2-4	-11	4	1
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	27	19	4-9	1-3	10-15	-4	2	3
R. Williams IIIC · #35	20	6	3-3	—	—	+11	2	0
C. LoveG · #2	26	11	5-14	1-7	—	-2	3	5
J. CookeG · #18	4	0	0-1	—	—	-1	0	0
R. RupertG · #21	16	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-7	4	0
Team		94	32-78	10-40	20-30		46	17
DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, D. Reath, Y. Hansen, M. Thybulle

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	30	11	4-12	3-7	—	+5	7	3
N. QuetaC · #88	22	4	2-6	—	—	+4	4	6
D. WhiteG · #9	34	18	7-14	2-4	2-2	+2	4	4
J. BrownG · #7	36	20	8-17	1-3	3-5	+6	8	4
P. PritchardG · #11	35	23	8-16	5-11	2-4	+23	4	3
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	26	9	3-8	—	3-5	+4	7	1
A. SimonsG · #4	26	12	5-12	2-7	—	-9	1	1
B. ScheiermanG · #55	13	2	1-2	—	—	-12	5	0
J. WalshG · #27	3	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	-2	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	+19	0	2
Team		102	39-90	13-34	11-18		41	24
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

32-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-90

FG %

10-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

20-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 28

BOS108@

POR114

Jan 27

POR94@

BOS102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+27527%

BOS-34578%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat POR 102-94. J. Brown led with 20 PTS, 8 REB, 4 AST. BOS outscored the other side 32-11 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 35 REB · 9 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 11 REB · 8 AST

GS 28

BOSstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 4 AST

GS 16

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	11	26	28	29	94
BOS	32	20	23	27	102

Period scoring

POR won 3 · BOS won 1

Sharpe 3

Pritchard 8

Holiday 8

Simons 5

Camara 6

Brown 9

Camara 7

Rupert 25

POR

BOS

Shooting comparison

POR

BOS

41%

32-78

43%

39-90

25%

10-40

3PT

38%

13-34

67%

20-30

61%

11-18

Play-by-play · 503 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·10.6
Sam Hauser defensive rebound
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·12.4
Toumani Camara misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 94·BOS 102
+0.5pp
Q4·17.4
Derrick White lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)
·
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·17.4
Jerami Grant vs. Derrick White (Toumani Camara gains possession)
· ·
POR 94·BOS 102
−0.5pp
Q4·21.0
Toumani Camara bad pass turnover (Derrick White steals)
·
POR 94·BOS 102
+0.8pp
Q4·23.5
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·23.5
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 94·BOS 102
Q4·24.1
Derrick White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Sam Hauser assists)
·
POR 94·BOS 102
+5pp
Q4·41.5
Toumani Camara makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 94·BOS 99
+4pp
Q4·41.5
Payton Pritchard enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
POR 93·BOS 99
Q4·41.5
Toumani Camara makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 93·BOS 99
−1pp
Q4·41.5
Anfernee Simons personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 92·BOS 99
−5pp
Q4·42.4
Derrick White lost ball turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)
·
POR 92·BOS 99
−1pp
Q4·1:03
Jerami Grant makes driving layup
POR 92·BOS 99
−0.8pp
Q4·1:09
Toumani Camara offensive rebound
POR 90·BOS 99
−0.7pp
Q4·1:12
Jerami Grant misses free throw 1 of 1
POR 90·BOS 99
+2pp
Q4·1:12
Neemias Queta enters the game for Amari Williams
·
POR 90·BOS 99
Q4·1:12
Amari Williams shooting foul
POR 90·BOS 99
−2pp
Q4·1:12
Jerami Grant makes driving layup
POR 90·BOS 99
Q4·1:18
Robert Williams III defensive rebound
·
POR 88·BOS 99
Q4·1:22
Jaylen Brown misses 20-foot pullup jump shot
POR 88·BOS 99
Q4·1:26
Amari Williams offensive rebound
POR 88·BOS 99
Q4·1:29
Anfernee Simons misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
POR 88·BOS 99
Q4·1:45
Jrue Holiday makes 8-foot two point shot
POR 88·BOS 99
Q4·1:59
Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 86·BOS 99
Q4·1:59
Robert Williams III enters the game for Donovan Clingan
· ·
POR 86·BOS 98
Q4·1:59
Celtics offensive team rebound
POR 86·BOS 98
Q4·1:59
Jaylen Brown misses free throw 1 of 2
POR 86·BOS 98

Betting line

BOS -8.5·O/U 223.5·POR +275/BOS -345

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Portland Trail Blazers, 102–94.

POR +8.5 cashed (BOS won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 223.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

BOS

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

114.6

PPG

114.9

114.2

25.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR