NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+37CHA

PHI

24-21

93130

CHA

19-28

NBAMon, Jan 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHA -1.5

PHI · top performer

Kelly Oubre Jr.

G · #9

12.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

30.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 48pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	25	9	4-8	0-1	1-2	-13	3	1
A. DrummondC · #1	19	4	2-3	—	0-2	-25	7	1
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	25	17	7-12	1-4	2-2	-40	2	0
T. MaxeyG · #0	25	6	3-12	0-3	—	-36	2	7
V. EdgecombeG · #77	26	9	2-11	1-4	4-4	-36	6	1
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	17	3	1-6	—	1-2	-14	2	0
J. WalkerF · #33	20	9	3-8	3-6	—	+8	2	0
J. EdwardsF · #11	16	4	1-3	0-2	2-2	+1	1	2
A. BonaC · #30	16	2	1-2	—	—	-26	2	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	26	14	5-11	0-2	4-5	-7	3	5
J. McCainG · #20	23	16	6-13	4-8	—	+3	3	3
Team		93	35-89	9-30	14-19		33	20
DNP: K. Lowry, E. Gordon

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	19	10	4-7	1-3	1-1	+22	3	3
M. DiabateF · #14	20	12	6-7	—	0-1	+32	5	0
B. MillerF · #24	27	30	9-11	6-8	6-6	+40	8	2
L. BallG · #1	20	11	4-12	2-6	1-1	+36	2	8
K. KnueppelG · #7	20	12	5-9	2-5	—	+28	8	6
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	17	9	3-7	2-5	1-3	+28	5	0
T. SalaunF · #31	12	7	3-5	1-2	—	-13	6	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	26	13	6-8	—	1-4	+4	9	3
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	8	0	—	—	—	-6	2	1
C. SextonG · #8	18	10	3-7	1-5	3-4	+6	2	3
J. GreenG · #10	21	12	3-6	1-3	5-5	+21	2	4
T. MannG · #23	12	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	-13	0	3
S. JamesG · #4	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	0	1	1
Team		130	47-83	17-41	19-27		53	34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

35-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-83

FG %

9-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-41

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 25

CHA121@

PHI125

Jan 26

PHI93@

CHA130today

Mar 28

PHI118@

CHA114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+10250%

CHA-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -1.5↗SpreadBet CHA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat PHI 130-93. B. Miller paced them with 30 PTS, 8 REB, 2 AST. CHA outscored the other side 40-15 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST

GS 29

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 33

CHAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 70

Bench(8)

55 PTS · 27 REB · 15 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 10:27 · 2-2

+23pp→ 49% WP

Kon Knueppel · misses running layup

CHA2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 22-28

+22pp→ 68% WP

Moussa Diabate · enters the game for Sion James

CHA3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 44-69

+48pp→ 99% WP

Miles Bridges · enters the game for Grant Williams

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	22	22	15	34	93
CHA	28	41	40	21	130

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · CHA won 3

Jr. 8

Knueppel 31

Jr. 6

Diabate 30

Jr. 3

Bridges 66

McCain 12

Salaun 7

PHI

CHA

Shooting comparison

PHI

CHA

39%

35-89

57%

47-83

30%

9-30

3PT

41%

17-41

74%

14-19

70%

19-27

Play-by-play · 495 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·3.7
Tidjane Salaun double dribble turnover
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·10.2
Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·13.4
Ryan Kalkbrenner blocks Jabari Walker 's 7-foot driving layup
·
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·24.5
Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)
·
PHI 93·CHA 130
Q4·43.9
Jared McCain makes 25-foot three pointer
PHI 93·CHA 127
Q4·54.9
Tidjane Salaun kicked ball violation
·
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:02
Ryan Kalkbrenner lost ball turnover (Justin Edwards steals)
· ·
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:02
Tidjane Salaun personal foul
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:02
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive rebound
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:05
Tre Mann misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:05
Tre Mann makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 90·CHA 127
Q4·1:05
Jabari Walker shooting foul
PHI 90·CHA 126
Q4·1:15
Jabari Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jared McCain assists)
·
PHI 90·CHA 126
Q4·1:27
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Tre Mann assists)
·
PHI 87·CHA 126
Q4·1:50
Quentin Grimes makes 3-foot running dunk (Jared McCain assists)
·
PHI 87·CHA 124
Q4·1:52
Jared McCain defensive rebound
PHI 85·CHA 124
Q4·1:54
Josh Green misses driving layup
PHI 85·CHA 124
Q4·2:19
Jared McCain makes 24-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)
·
PHI 85·CHA 124
Q4·2:33
Tidjane Salaun makes 5-foot two point shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
PHI 82·CHA 124
Q4·2:46
Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·2:48
Justin Edwards misses 27-foot running jump shot
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·2:54
Quentin Grimes defensive rebound
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·2:58
Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·3:17
Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive goaltending violation
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·3:17
Justin Edwards makes driving layup
PHI 82·CHA 122
Q4·3:26
76ers Full timeout
PHI 80·CHA 122
Q4·3:26
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 80·CHA 122
Q4·3:26
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Dominick Barlow
·
PHI 80·CHA 121

Betting line

CHA -1.5·O/U 229.5·PHI +102/CHA -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Philadelphia 76ers, 130–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -1.5 cashed (won by 37). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

CHA

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR