NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+31MIA

MIA

24-22

147116

UTAH

15-31

NBASat, Jan 24FinalSeriesMIA leads series 1-0VegasMIA -6.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Jusuf Nurkic

C · #30

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	27	17	6-12	2-5	3-3	+14	6	6
B. AdebayoC · #13	31	26	8-19	4-10	6-6	+19	15	2
N. PowellG · #24	25	13	3-11	0-4	7-10	+15	4	6
P. LarssonG · #9	25	20	7-11	3-6	3-3	+18	2	3
K. JakucionisG · #25	17	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	+7	5	1
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	24	14	5-12	4-9	—	+19	6	2
M. GardnerF · #15	10	2	1-4	0-1	0-2	+12	6	4
K. JohnsonF · #16	3	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+5	0	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	28	9	4-10	—	1-1	+22	7	5
N. JovicF · #5	25	23	6-12	3-6	8-11	+9	3	1
D. SmithG · #12	26	6	2-10	0-2	2-2	+15	10	5
Team		147	47-108	19-47	34-42		64	35
DNP: D. Mitchell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. WilliamsF · #5	30	5	2-5	0-1	1-2	-26	1	1
J. NurkicC · #30	31	17	8-13	1-1	0-2	-30	10	12
S. MykhailiukG · #10	17	8	3-4	—	2-2	-15	3	1
K. GeorgeG · #3	36	19	6-19	0-8	7-8	-27	2	5
A. BaileyG · #19	28	12	6-15	0-5	—	-23	2	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	15	2	1-2	—	—	+1	1	0
K. FilipowskiF · #22	16	9	4-6	1-1	—	0	4	3
B. SensabaughF · #28	23	23	7-15	4-7	5-6	-6	4	1
I. CollierG · #8	28	16	6-10	—	4-6	-11	6	9
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	15	5	1-3	1-2	2-2	-18	1	2
Team		116	44-92	7-25	21-28		34	36
DNP: T. Hendricks

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

47-108

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-92

FG %

19-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-25

34-42

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 1-0

Jan 25

MIA147@

UTAH116today

Feb 10

UTAH115@

MIA111

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

244.5

High-scoring · +18.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA-25872%

UTAH+21032%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -6.5↗SpreadBet MIA -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

244.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat UTAH 147-116. B. Adebayo paced them with 26 PTS, 15 REB, 2 AST. MIA outscored the other side 38-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 32 REB · 18 AST

GS 78

Bench(6)

59 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST

GS 56

UTAHstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 18 REB · 21 AST

GS 48

Bench(5)

55 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST

GS 49

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 35-34

+9pp→ 29% WP

Walter Clayton Jr. · enters the game for Kyle Filipowski

UTAH2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 35-34

+7pp→ 29% WP

Myron Gardner · enters the game for Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	35	38	35	39	147
UTAH	34	18	37	27	116

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · UTAH won 1

Adebayo 11

Sensabaugh 7

Jovic 8

George 5

Jakucionis 9

Sensabaugh 9

Adebayo 10

Sensabaugh 9

MIA

UTAH

Shooting comparison

MIA

UTAH

44%

47-108

48%

44-92

40%

19-47

3PT

28%

7-25

81%

34-42

75%

21-28

Play-by-play · 554 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 147·UTAH 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 147·UTAH 116
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIA 147·UTAH 116
Q4·0.6
Kyle Filipowski makes 27-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
MIA 147·UTAH 116
Q4·2.0
Jazz offensive team rebound
MIA 147·UTAH 113
Q4·3.0
Myron Gardner blocks Isaiah Collier 's 4-foot driving floating jump shot
·
MIA 147·UTAH 113
Q4·9.1
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 147·UTAH 113
Q4·9.1
Keshad Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 146·UTAH 113
Q4·9.1
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul
MIA 145·UTAH 113
Q4·32.9
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 145·UTAH 113
Q4·32.9
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 145·UTAH 112
Q4·32.9
Keshad Johnson shooting foul
MIA 145·UTAH 111
Q4·43.0
Keshad Johnson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Myron Gardner assists)
·
MIA 145·UTAH 111
Q4·51.1
Myron Gardner defensive rebound
MIA 142·UTAH 111
Q4·53.9
Keyonte George misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIA 142·UTAH 111
Q4·1:07
Dru Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 142·UTAH 111
Q4·1:07
Dru Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 141·UTAH 111
Q4·1:07
Cody Williams shooting foul
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:10
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:13
Ace Bailey misses two point shot
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:13
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:14
Kyle Filipowski misses tip shot
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:14
Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:15
Kyle Filipowski misses two point shot
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:23
Keyonte George defensive rebound
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:25
Dru Smith misses driving layup
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:35
Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic
·
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:35
Jusuf Nurkic out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:48
Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound
MIA 140·UTAH 111
Q4·1:50
Myron Gardner misses driving layup
MIA 140·UTAH 111

Betting line

MIA -6.5·O/U 244.5·MIA -258/UTAH +210

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 147–116. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -6.5 cashed (won by 31). Total cleared the 244.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891
Jusuf NurkicUTAH · C
DEFL2.790
Norman PowellCHI · G
USG%26.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high
John KoncharUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

UTAH

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

117.6

29.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR