NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6LAL

LAL

27-17

116110

DAL

19-27

NBASat, Jan 24FinalSeriesLAL lead series 2-0VegasLAL -4.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

31.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Max Christie

G · #00

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 41pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	37	17	8-16	1-3	—	-8	8	5
J. LaRaviaF · #12	30	13	4-8	2-6	3-4	+12	6	1
D. AytonC · #5	24	9	4-16	—	1-2	-12	11	0
M. SmartG · #36	32	13	4-10	2-4	3-5	-2	7	3
L. DoncicG · #77	39	33	8-15	3-8	14-15	+18	8	11
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	27	17	6-13	4-7	1-1	+21	8	1
J. VanderbiltF · #2	12	8	3-6	2-3	0-2	-4	4	2
D. TimmeF · #17	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	3	1
J. HayesC · #11	15	6	3-3	—	—	+1	1	1
G. VincentG · #7	15	0	0-2	0-2	—	+8	1	1
K. BufkinG · #6	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		116	40-90	14-34	22-29		57	26
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	24	0	0-2	—	—	+13	7	2
C. MartinF · #16	24	17	6-10	3-4	2-2	+14	3	1
N. MarshallF · #13	37	21	7-15	0-3	7-10	-8	11	2
C. FlaggF · #32	34	16	7-20	1-5	1-2	-4	7	6
M. ChristieG · #00	35	24	8-18	4-10	4-4	-9	2	3
Bench
D. GaffordF · #21	16	2	0-1	—	2-2	-5	2	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	26	2	1-5	0-1	—	-9	3	0
J. Robinson-EarlF · #23	3	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	14	6	2-5	2-5	0-2	+5	3	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	23	20	8-17	0-1	4-5	-24	4	4
R. NembhardG · #9	4	2	0-1	—	2-2	+1	0	2
Team		110	39-94	10-29	22-29		43	22
DNP: D. Russell, M. Kelly, J. Hardy

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

40-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-94

FG %

14-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-29

22-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 2-0

Nov 29

DAL119@

LAL129

Jan 25

LAL116@

DAL110today

Feb 13

DAL104@

LAL124

Apr 5

LAL128@

DAL134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-17564%

DAL+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -4.5↗SpreadBet LAL -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat DAL 116-110. L. Doncic paced them with 33 PTS, 8 REB, 11 AST. DAL outscored the other side 35-14 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 40 REB · 20 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

31 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 33

DALstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 30 REB · 14 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL3rd Quarter · 2:58 · 77-77

+41pp→ 50% WP

Jarred Vanderbilt · misses 4-foot tip shot

LAL4th Quarter · 2:15 · 108-106

+17pp→ 63% WP

Rui Hachimura · makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 2:00 · 108-107

+17pp→ 64% WP

Cooper Flagg · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	37	28	14	37	116
DAL	28	24	35	23	110

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · DAL won 1

Doncic 12

Williams 7

Smart 6

Martin 15

Doncic 7

Williams 17

James 11

Martin 19

LAL

DAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

DAL

44%

40-90

41%

39-94

41%

14-34

3PT

34%

10-29

76%

22-29

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 515 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 116·DAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 116·DAL 110
Q4·10.4
Naji Marshall makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Klay Thompson assists)
·
LAL 116·DAL 110
Q4·20.9
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
LAL 116·DAL 108
Q4·23.7
Luka Doncic misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 116·DAL 108
Q4·41.8
Naji Marshall offensive foul turnover
LAL 116·DAL 108
Q4·41.8
Naji Marshall offensive charge
LAL 116·DAL 108
−1pp
Q4·50.5
Luka Doncic makes 3-foot two point shot
LAL 116·DAL 108
−2pp
Q4·1:04
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
LAL 114·DAL 108
Q4·1:07
Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 114·DAL 108
−7pp
Q4·1:07
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 114·DAL 108
+1pp
Q4·1:07
Luka Doncic personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 114·DAL 107
+6pp
Q4·1:15
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 114·DAL 107
+2pp
Q4·1:15
Klay Thompson enters the game for Brandon Williams
·
LAL 113·DAL 107
Q4·1:15
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 113·DAL 107
−0.6pp
Q4·1:15
Naji Marshall personal foul
LAL 112·DAL 107
−4pp
Q4·1:17
Lakers defensive team rebound
LAL 112·DAL 107
−1pp
Q4·1:20
Brandon Williams misses 28-foot three point jumper
LAL 112·DAL 107
−4pp
Q4·1:30
LeBron James makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
·
LAL 112·DAL 107
−5pp
Q4·1:30
LeBron James offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
LAL 110·DAL 107
−6pp
Q4·1:31
Marcus Smart misses running layupBIG MOMENT
LAL 110·DAL 107
+6pp
Q4·1:36
Jake LaRavia defensive rebound
LAL 110·DAL 107
−2pp
Q4·1:37
Brandon Williams misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
LAL 110·DAL 107
−6pp
Q4·1:40
Mavericks Full timeout
LAL 110·DAL 107
Q4·1:40
Marcus Smart makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
LAL 110·DAL 107
−8pp
Q4·1:40
Marcus Smart offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·DAL 107
−8pp
Q4·1:42
Rui Hachimura misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 108·DAL 107
+7pp
Q4·1:57
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
LAL 108·DAL 107
Q4·2:00
Cooper Flagg misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 108·DAL 107
−17pp
Q4·2:00
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 108·DAL 107
+2pp

Betting line

LAL -4.5·O/U 233.5·LAL -175/DAL +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 116–110.

LAL -4.5 cashed (won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

DAL

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR