NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CHI

BOS

28-17

111114

CHI

23-22

NBASat, Jan 24FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -3.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Nikola Vucevic

C · #9

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 44pp · 4th Quarter · 1.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	24	8	3-7	2-6	—	-12	4	3
A. WilliamsF · #77	10	2	1-1	—	—	-3	2	0
D. WhiteG · #9	39	15	5-18	3-11	2-2	+1	7	7
J. BrownG · #7	37	33	14-28	2-8	3-4	-13	8	5
P. PritchardG · #11	30	10	4-10	1-3	1-1	-4	3	7
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	14	4	2-4	0-2	—	-3	2	1
N. QuetaC · #88	24	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	+3	3	0
A. SimonsG · #4	28	21	8-16	5-11	—	0	4	5
B. ScheiermanG · #55	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	+1	3	0
J. WalshG · #27	18	7	3-5	1-3	—	+8	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	11	3	1-1	1-1	—	+7	1	0
Team		111	44-99	15-47	8-9		38	28
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, R. Harper Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	27	14	6-10	2-5	—	+11	9	0
I. OkoroF · #35	27	12	5-9	2-6	0-1	+8	2	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	32	14	5-13	4-10	—	+15	8	5
N. VucevicC · #9	35	16	7-10	2-2	—	-7	7	6
C. WhiteG · #0	32	22	6-16	5-9	5-5	+5	1	7
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	16	10	4-5	2-3	—	-7	1	0
K. HuerterG · #13	24	12	5-7	2-3	—	+5	6	3
A. DosunmuG · #11	23	10	4-9	2-5	—	-10	2	0
J. GiddeyG · #3	24	4	1-6	0-2	2-2	-5	8	10
Team		114	43-85	21-45	7-8		44	32
DNP: D. Terry, J. Phillips, J. Carter, Olbrich

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

44-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-85

FG %

15-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-45

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-8

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 6

CHI101@

BOS115

Jan 25

BOS111@

CHI114today

Feb 12

CHI105@

BOS124

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-15561%

CHI+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat BOS 114-111. N. Vucevic led with 16 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. CHI outscored the other side 36-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 24 REB · 22 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 14 REB · 6 AST

GS 37

CHIstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 27 REB · 19 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 13 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS4th Quarter · 2:23 · 109-111

+18pp→ 47% WP

Jalen Smith · shooting foul

BOS4th Quarter · 14.2 · 111-111

+18pp→ 46% WP

Jaylen Brown · makes running layup

CHI4th Quarter · 1.0 · 111-114

+44pp→ 99% WP

Kevin Huerter · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	28	30	27	26	111
CHI	30	22	36	26	114

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · CHI won 2

Brown 11

White 8

Simons 10

Vucevic 7

Brown 7

White 13

White 10

Williams 8

BOS

CHI

Shooting comparison

BOS

CHI

44%

44-99

51%

43-85

32%

15-47

3PT

47%

21-45

89%

8-9

88%

7-8

Play-by-play · 432 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 111·CHI 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 111·CHI 114
Q4·0.2
Payton Pritchard enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez
·
BOS 111·CHI 114
Q4·0.2
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 111·CHI 114
Q4·0.2
Jalen Smith enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
BOS 111·CHI 114
Q4·0.2
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 111·CHI 114
+1pp
Q4·1.0
Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
BOS 111·CHI 114
+44pp
Q4·14.2
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
BOS 111·CHI 111
Q4·14.2
Kevin Huerter enters the game for Jalen Smith
·
BOS 111·CHI 111
Q4·14.2
Bulls Full timeout
BOS 111·CHI 111
Q4·14.2
Jaylen Brown makes running layupBIG MOMENT
BOS 111·CHI 111
−18pp
Q4·19.8
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111
−3pp
Q4·20.4
Jalen Smith misses tip in dunkBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
−8pp
Q4·21.1
Jalen Smith offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
+8pp
Q4·22.3
Coby White misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
BOS 109·CHI 111
−5pp
Q4·38.3
Jalen Smith defensive rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111
+3pp
Q4·40.0
Jaylen Brown misses 5-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
+9pp
Q4·49.9
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111
−2pp
Q4·52.5
Coby White misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
BOS 109·CHI 111
−6pp
Q4·1:12
(01:12) [Bulls] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Bulls] retain their timeout
BOS 109·CHI 111
Q4·1:12
Bulls Coach's Challenge
BOS 109·CHI 111
Q4·1:12
Bulls defensive team rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111
+3pp
Q4·1:14
Derrick White misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
BOS 109·CHI 111
+8pp
Q4·1:22
Derrick White defensive rebound
·
BOS 109·CHI 111
−2pp
Q4·1:26
Matas Buzelis misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
−6pp
Q4·1:41
Jalen Smith defensive rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111
+3pp
Q4·1:43
Neemias Queta misses 4-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
+7pp
Q4·1:44
Jaylen Brown vs. Jalen Smith (Neemias Queta gains possession)
· ·
BOS 109·CHI 111
+1pp
Q4·2:10
Josh Giddey double dribble turnoverBIG MOMENT
BOS 109·CHI 111
−8pp
Q4·2:20
Josh Giddey defensive rebound
BOS 109·CHI 111

Betting line

BOS -3.5·O/U 232.5·BOS -155/CHI +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Boston Celtics, 114–111. Decided by 3.

CHI +3.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195
Payton PritchardBOS · G
TOUCHES65.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

CHI

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.7%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR