NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7HOU

HOU

27-16

111104

DET

32-11

NBAFri, Jan 23FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDET -4.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

27.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Isaiah Stewart

F · #28

13.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 17pp · 4th Quarter · 8:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	41	32	11-19	5-11	5-6	+18	7	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	37	11	5-9	1-3	—	-1	10	3
A. SengunC · #28	30	19	6-11	0-1	7-10	+2	1	5
J. OkogieG · #20	35	7	3-5	1-2	—	+1	3	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	15	5-11	—	5-5	+11	9	7
Bench
J. TateF · #8	16	4	1-4	1-2	1-2	+3	4	1
C. CapelaC · #30	16	5	2-5	—	1-2	+6	9	1
R. SheppardG · #15	25	18	6-15	1-7	5-5	-5	0	1
Team		111	39-79	9-26	24-30		43	21
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	26	4	1-6	0-3	2-3	-16	1	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	26	9	2-8	2-8	3-5	-15	2	0
J. DurenC · #0	26	18	7-13	—	4-4	-15	7	0
C. CunninghamG · #2	38	12	5-13	0-4	2-3	-10	1	8
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	12	5-8	—	2-2	-14	8	3
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	25	16	7-9	0-2	2-2	+4	4	2
R. Holland IIF · #5	25	13	5-7	1-3	2-3	+2	6	1
J. GreenG · #31	17	2	1-3	0-1	0-2	+12	3	1
J. IveyG · #23	14	8	3-7	2-5	—	+3	1	2
D. JenkinsG · #24	19	10	4-10	2-6	—	+14	2	4
Team		104	40-84	7-32	17-24		35	22
DNP: P. Reed, B. Klintman, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

DET

Home

39-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-84

FG %

9-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-32

24-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 25

DET115@

HOU111

Jan 24

HOU111@

DET104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

217.5

Defensive · -8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU+14541%

DET-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -4.5↗SpreadBet DET -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

217.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat DET 111-104. K. Durant paced them with 32 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. HOU outscored the other side 34-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 78

Bench(3)

27 PTS · 13 REB · 3 AST

GS 17

DETstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 34

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET4th Quarter · 10:22 · 87-82

+10pp→ 34% WP

Josh Okogie · shooting foul

DET4th Quarter · 8:26 · 94-89

+14pp→ 37% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · loose ball foul

DET4th Quarter · 8:26 · 94-89

+17pp→ 28% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · bad pass turnover (Ronald Holland II steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	28	24	34	25	111
DET	20	32	20	32	104

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · DET won 2

Sengun 6

Cunningham 6

Durant 13

II 6

Sheppard 10

Duren 6

Durant 6

Duren 14

HOU

DET

Shooting comparison

HOU

DET

49%

39-79

48%

40-84

35%

9-26

3PT

22%

7-32

80%

24-30

71%

17-24

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·19.2
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
· ·
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·19.2
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
· ·
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·19.2
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
· ·
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·19.2
Rockets defensive team rebound
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·21.7
Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point jumper
HOU 111·DET 104
−1pp
Q4·28.2
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 111·DET 104
Q4·28.2
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
· ·
HOU 110·DET 104
Q4·28.2
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Ausar Thompson
· ·
HOU 110·DET 104
Q4·28.2
Tobias Harris enters the game for Javonte Green
· ·
HOU 110·DET 104
Q4·28.2
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 110·DET 104
+0.9pp
Q4·28.2
Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 110·DET 104
+0.5pp
Q4·28.2
Isaiah Stewart loose ball foul
HOU 110·DET 104
−2pp
Q4·28.9
Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)
· ·
HOU 110·DET 104
+2pp
Q4·30.7
Ausar Thompson offensive rebound
·
HOU 110·DET 101
Q4·33.4
Duncan Robinson misses free throw 3 of 3
HOU 110·DET 101
−1pp
Q4·33.4
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate
·
HOU 110·DET 101
Q4·33.4
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
· ·
HOU 110·DET 101
Q4·33.4
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Tobias Harris
· ·
HOU 110·DET 101
Q4·33.4
Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 3
HOU 110·DET 101
+0.7pp
Q4·33.4
Duncan Robinson makes free throw 1 of 3
HOU 110·DET 100
Q4·33.4
Kevin Durant shooting foul
HOU 110·DET 99
Q4·42.1
Jae'Sean Tate makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 110·DET 99
Q4·42.1
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 109·DET 99
Q4·42.1
Jae'Sean Tate misses free throw 1 of 2
HOU 109·DET 99
Q4·42.1
Cade Cunningham personal take foul
HOU 109·DET 99
Q4·48.7
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
HOU 109·DET 99
Q4·51.8
Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 109·DET 99
Q4·57.0
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 109·DET 99

Betting line

DET -4.5·O/U 217.5·HOU +145/DET -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Detroit Pistons and beat them, 111–104.

HOU +4.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 217.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

DET

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.2%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR