NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17POR

MIA

23-22

110127

POR

23-22

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPOR -3.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

26.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Shaedon Sharpe

G · #17

17.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:47

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	31	14	6-9	1-3	1-1	-28	6	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	37	32	13-24	1-7	5-5	-6	10	2
N. PowellG · #24	28	18	7-15	0-7	4-5	-18	0	1
P. LarssonG · #9	29	6	3-5	0-2	—	-6	3	6
K. JakucionisG · #25	11	3	1-2	1-2	—	-18	0	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	25	17	7-11	3-6	—	-3	4	3
M. GardnerF · #15	16	7	2-5	2-5	1-2	+6	3	1
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	26	4	1-7	0-2	2-2	-7	5	3
N. JovicF · #5	17	5	2-8	1-7	0-2	-7	5	3
D. SmithG · #12	20	4	1-8	0-4	2-2	+2	4	2
Team		110	43-94	9-45	15-19		40	27
DNP: K. Johnson, D. Mitchell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	35	16	6-9	3-6	1-2	+26	8	6
D. AvdijaF · #8	18	20	6-11	2-5	6-6	+3	7	4
D. ClinganC · #23	27	7	3-4	1-2	—	+12	8	2
J. HolidayG · #5	19	15	6-13	3-7	—	+14	2	7
S. SharpeG · #17	34	27	11-21	5-9	—	+18	7	3
Bench
J. GrantF · #9	23	12	4-11	1-5	3-3	-2	0	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	19	4	2-3	0-1	—	+3	10	0
C. LoveG · #2	34	20	8-19	4-12	—	+15	4	4
S. CissokoG · #91	18	6	2-4	1-2	1-2	+4	3	0
R. RupertG · #21	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	1	0
Team		127	48-96	20-50	11-13		50	26
DNP: K. Murray, D. Reath, Y. Hansen, M. Thybulle, S. Henderson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

POR

Home

43-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-96

FG %

9-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-50

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 9

POR131@

MIA136

Jan 23

MIA110@

POR127today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

POR -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+13043%

POR-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet POR -3.5↗SpreadBet POR -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat MIA 127-110. S. Sharpe paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST. POR outscored the other side 39-29 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 19 REB · 15 AST

GS 64

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 21 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

PORstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 32 REB · 22 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 18 REB · 4 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR3rd Quarter · 11:50 · 63-64

+7pp→ 64% WP

Andrew Wiggins · shooting foul

POR3rd Quarter · 10:47 · 68-69

+7pp→ 55% WP

Shaedon Sharpe · makes 25-foot running jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)

POR3rd Quarter · 10:15 · 68-72

+7pp→ 66% WP

Jrue Holiday · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	31	32	29	18	110
POR	38	26	39	24	127

Period scoring

MIA won 1 · POR won 3

Adebayo 9

Avdija 9

Adebayo 8

Grant 26

Adebayo 11

Sharpe 12

Gardner 6

Sharpe 12

MIA

POR

Shooting comparison

MIA

POR

46%

43-94

50%

48-96

20%

9-45

3PT

40%

20-50

79%

15-19

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·25.7
Caleb Love defensive rebound
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·29.2
Bam Adebayo misses 7-foot two point shot
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·42.6
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·45.2
Caleb Love misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·1:06
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·1:10
Simone Fontecchio misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·1:22
Toumani Camara makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)
·
MIA 110·POR 127
Q4·1:47
Andrew Wiggins makes free throw 1 of 1
MIA 110·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Myron Gardner enters the game for Norman Powell
·
MIA 109·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
MIA 109·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
MIA 109·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Toumani Camara shooting foul
MIA 109·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Andrew Wiggins makes two point shot
MIA 109·POR 125
Q4·1:47
Andrew Wiggins offensive rebound
MIA 107·POR 125
Q4·1:48
Simone Fontecchio misses 12-foot two point shot
MIA 107·POR 125
Q4·1:58
Caleb Love makes driving layup
MIA 107·POR 125
Q4·2:21
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:24
Norman Powell misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:35
Andrew Wiggins defensive rebound
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:40
Jerami Grant misses 30-foot three point jumper
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:46
Bam Adebayo lost ball turnover (Toumani Camara steals)
·
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:47
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·2:50
Caleb Love misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·3:06
Trail Blazers delay of game violation
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·3:06
Trail Blazers Full timeout
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·3:14
Bam Adebayo makes 2-foot driving dunk
MIA 107·POR 123
Q4·3:16
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
MIA 105·POR 123

Betting line

POR -3.5·O/U 234.5·MIA +130/POR -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers held off Miami Heat, 127–110.

POR -3.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

POR

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.6

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR