NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAC

LAL

26-17

104112

LAC

20-24

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-1VegasLAC -2.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

26.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Ivica Zubac

C · #40

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 30pp · 1st Quarter · 6:17

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	36	23	9-19	1-4	4-5	-7	5	6
J. LaRaviaF · #12	22	7	2-5	2-2	1-2	-15	5	1
D. AytonC · #5	21	4	2-5	—	—	-14	5	0
M. SmartG · #36	30	10	4-10	1-5	1-1	-1	0	4
L. DoncicG · #77	39	32	11-27	3-13	7-10	-17	11	8
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	28	12	5-11	2-7	—	+6	3	2
J. VanderbiltF · #2	22	7	3-5	1-1	—	+16	1	2
D. TimmeF · #17	10	0	—	—	—	+4	1	1
J. HayesC · #11	17	6	3-4	—	—	-4	2	0
G. VincentG · #7	16	3	1-2	1-1	—	-8	1	0
Team		104	40-88	11-33	13-18		34	24
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	26	24	9-19	3-7	3-3	+1	5	4
J. CollinsF · #20	33	13	5-7	1-3	2-2	+18	5	1
I. ZubacC · #40	32	18	7-13	—	4-4	+15	19	0
J. HardenG · #1	38	18	6-21	2-6	4-4	+13	7	10
K. DunnG · #8	30	4	2-4	0-2	—	+12	2	3
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	17	0	0-3	0-3	—	-5	2	1
B. LopezC · #11	15	10	4-6	2-4	—	-9	2	2
J. MillerG · #22	25	14	3-5	1-2	7-8	-8	3	1
K. SandersG · #4	24	11	4-6	3-4	—	+3	4	1
Team		112	40-84	12-31	20-21		49	23
DNP: Y. Niederhauser, K. Brown, P. Baldwin Jr., T. Washington Jr., C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

40-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-84

FG %

11-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-31

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 2-1

Nov 26

LAC118@

LAL135

Dec 21

LAL88@

LAC103

Jan 23

LAL104@

LAC112today

Feb 21

LAC122@

LAL125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+12045%

LAC-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -2.5↗SpreadBet LAC -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat LAL 112-104. I. Zubac led with 18 PTS, 19 REB, 0 AST. LAC outscored the other side 28-18 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 64

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 8 REB · 5 AST

GS 24

LACstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 38 REB · 18 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL1st Quarter · 6:17 · 16-14

+30pp→ 50% WP

James Harden · lost ball turnover (Luka Doncic steals)

LAL1st Quarter · 3:55 · 20-22

+25pp→ 40% WP

Kobe Sanders · bad pass turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)

LAL1st Quarter · 3:53 · 20-22

+25pp→ 37% WP

Jake LaRavia · bad pass turnover (Jordan Miller steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	29	18	25	32	104
LAC	36	28	22	26	112

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · LAC won 2

Doncic 14

Zubac 10

James 5

Harden 40

Doncic 9

Leonard 23

James 9

Miller 9

LAL

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAL

LAC

45%

40-88

48%

40-84

33%

11-33

3PT

39%

12-31

72%

13-18

95%

20-21

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 104·LAC 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 104·LAC 112
Q4·10.3
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
· ·
LAL 104·LAC 112
Q4·10.3
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
· ·
LAL 104·LAC 111
Q4·10.3
Luka Doncic personal take foul
LAL 104·LAC 110
+1pp
Q4·20.3
John Collins defensive rebound
LAL 104·LAC 110
+0.9pp
Q4·23.6
Luka Doncic misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 104·LAC 110
+3pp
Q4·31.0
Nicolas Batum bad pass turnover (Jarred Vanderbilt steals)
·
LAL 104·LAC 110
−2pp
Q4·33.6
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Ivica Zubac
·
LAL 104·LAC 110
Q4·33.6
Clippers Full timeout
LAL 104·LAC 110
Q4·38.0
Luka Doncic makes driving layup (LeBron James assists)
· ·
LAL 104·LAC 110
−1pp
Q4·42.5
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 102·LAC 110
Q4·43.2
John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 102·LAC 110
+5pp
Q4·58.1
Kawhi Leonard defensive rebound
LAL 102·LAC 107
+2pp
Q4·1:00
Rui Hachimura misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAL 102·LAC 107
+4pp
Q4·1:16
Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot reverse dunk (Kris Dunn assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 102·LAC 107
+6pp
Q4·1:28
LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 102·LAC 105
+7pp
Q4·1:28
Ivica Zubac shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 101·LAC 105
−14pp
Q4·1:28
LeBron James makes driving layup (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
LAL 101·LAC 105
−3pp
Q4·1:37
Ivica Zubac makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 99·LAC 105
−3pp
Q4·1:37
Ivica Zubac makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 99·LAC 104
+0.7pp
Q4·1:37
Rui Hachimura loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 99·LAC 103
+5pp
Q4·1:37
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAL 99·LAC 103
+5pp
Q4·1:39
Kawhi Leonard misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 99·LAC 103
−4pp
Q4·1:55
Jarred Vanderbilt makes 5-foot dunk (LeBron James assists)
· ·
LAL 99·LAC 103
−3pp
Q4·2:03
Kawhi Leonard out of bounds lost ball turnover
LAL 97·LAC 103
−1pp
Q4·2:15
Kawhi Leonard enters the game for Jordan Miller
·
LAL 97·LAC 103
−2pp
Q4·2:15
Clippers Full timeout
LAL 97·LAC 103
Q4·2:17
Marcus Smart makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)
·
LAL 97·LAC 103
−3pp
Q4·2:22
Jordan Miller bad pass turnover (Marcus Smart steals)
·
LAL 94·LAC 103
−1pp

Betting line

LAC -2.5·O/U 224.5·LAL +120/LAC -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Los Angeles Lakers, 112–104.

LAC -2.5 cashed (won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Ivica ZubacIND · C
CONT9.298
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

LAC

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.5%

114.8

PPG

114.9

113.9

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR