NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CHI

CHI

22-22

120115

MIN

27-18

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -9.5

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Julius Randle

F · #30

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 49pp · 4th Quarter · 7:55

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	27	17	6-9	3-4	2-2	+5	4	0
I. OkoroF · #35	26	10	3-7	2-4	2-2	-6	5	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	28	12	3-8	2-3	4-4	+1	6	3
N. VucevicC · #9	31	10	3-10	2-4	2-2	-6	8	3
C. WhiteG · #0	30	22	6-16	3-10	7-9	+6	4	4
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	16	5	2-3	1-1	—	+9	3	0
K. HuerterG · #13	8	3	1-4	1-3	—	+5	0	2
T. JonesG · #30	27	12	5-7	1-2	1-2	+9	3	7
A. DosunmuG · #11	22	8	2-9	2-5	2-3	0	4	3
J. GiddeyG · #3	26	21	7-13	0-3	7-9	+2	6	5
Team		120	38-86	17-39	27-33		43	28
DNP: D. Terry, J. Phillips, J. Carter, Olbrich

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	31	30	10-17	3-5	7-7	-8	7	6
J. McDanielsF · #3	36	16	6-9	2-2	2-2	+2	5	5
R. GobertC · #27	34	10	3-5	—	4-5	-1	11	2
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	35	11	4-10	3-8	—	+1	3	4
A. EdwardsG · #5	35	20	9-25	1-8	1-1	+1	6	3
Bench
J. BeringerF · #19	3	0	0-1	—	—	-5	1	0
N. ReidC · #11	29	20	8-12	4-7	—	+4	6	5
M. ConleyG · #10	14	3	1-5	1-4	—	-8	3	2
J. ClarkG · #22	12	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	1	1
B. HylandG · #8	12	3	1-6	1-5	—	-4	2	1
Team		115	43-93	15-41	14-15		45	29
DNP: J. Ingles, E. Freeman, L. Miller, R. Dillingham

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

38-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

17-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-41

27-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 30

MIN136@

CHI101

Jan 23

CHI120@

MIN115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+29525%

MIN-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -9.5↗SpreadBet MIN -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MIN 120-115. J. Giddey led with 21 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. Nikola Vucevic's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (49pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 45

MINstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 7:55 · 104-101

+49pp→ 58% WP

Nikola Vucevic · bad pass turnover (Naz Reid steals)

MIN4th Quarter · 1:17 · 111-115

+17pp→ 83% WP

Jaden McDaniels · makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)

CHI4th Quarter · 19.2 · 116-115

+18pp→ 71% WP

Anthony Edwards · misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	26	34	33	27	120
MIN	32	29	29	25	115

Period scoring

CHI won 3 · MIN won 1

Giddey 8

Reid 9

Giddey 10

Smith 15

Jones 8

Randle 8

Smith 9

Reid 13

CHI

MIN

Shooting comparison

CHI

MIN

44%

38-86

46%

43-93

44%

17-39

3PT

37%

15-41

82%

27-33

93%

14-15

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 120·MIN 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 120·MIN 115
Q4·0.8
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
CHI 120·MIN 115
Q4·0.8
Anthony Edwards misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 120·MIN 115
−0.8pp
Q4·3.5
Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 120·MIN 115
Q4·3.5
Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 119·MIN 115
Q4·3.5
Bones Hyland enters the game for Julius Randle
·
CHI 118·MIN 115
Q4·3.5
Julius Randle personal take foul
CHI 118·MIN 115
−3pp
Q4·4.9
Coby White defensive rebound
CHI 118·MIN 115
−5pp
Q4·9.2
Anthony Edwards misses 23-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 118·MIN 115
−7pp
Q4·11.0
Patrick Williams enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
CHI 118·MIN 115
Q4·11.0
Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
CHI 118·MIN 115
Q4·11.0
Timberwolves Full timeout
CHI 118·MIN 115
Q4·11.0
Jalen Smith makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 118·MIN 115
+5pp
Q4·11.0
Isaac Okoro enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
CHI 117·MIN 115
Q4·11.0
Jalen Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 117·MIN 115
−2pp
Q4·11.0
Julius Randle personal take foul
CHI 116·MIN 115
−0.5pp
Q4·12.9
Anthony Edwards personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MIN 115
−11pp
Q4·15.6
Josh Giddey defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MIN 115
−6pp
Q4·19.2
Anthony Edwards misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 116·MIN 115
−18pp
Q4·31.1
Tre Jones makes driving layup (Coby White assists)
·
CHI 116·MIN 115
−5pp
Q4·34.7
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 114·MIN 115
Q4·34.7
Jaden McDaniels out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MIN 115
−17pp
Q4·38.6
Julius Randle defensive rebound
CHI 114·MIN 115
+5pp
Q4·40.8
Rudy Gobert blocks Josh Giddey 's 2-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 114·MIN 115
+13pp
Q4·41.7
Coby White offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MIN 115
−13pp
Q4·45.3
Jalen Smith misses 24-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 114·MIN 115
+14pp
Q4·50.1
Julius Randle bad pass turnover (Tre Jones steals)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 114·MIN 115
−17pp
Q4·1:06
Coby White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 114·MIN 115
−17pp
Q4·1:17
Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Julius Randle assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 111·MIN 115
+17pp

Betting line

MIN -9.5·O/U 239.5·CHI +295/MIN -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 120–115. Decided by 5.

CHI +9.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G
USG%31.397
Joan BeringerMIN · F
TS%68.397
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high
LaMelo BallMIN
1.1± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

MIN

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

116.3

PPG

114.9

116.8

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR