NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8DAL

25-21

115123

DAL

19-26

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasGS -6.5

GS · top performer

Stephen Curry

G · #30

23.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

29.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 29pp · 4th Quarter · 8:56

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	23	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	-15	4	5
G. SantosF · #15	17	5	2-5	1-4	—	-5	4	0
S. CurryG · #30	34	38	14-27	8-15	2-2	-24	4	1
M. MoodyG · #4	23	12	4-7	3-6	1-1	-5	3	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	33	9	4-13	0-4	1-2	+10	4	10
Bench
J. KumingaF · #1	9	10	3-3	—	4-4	+18	1	2
A. HorfordC · #20	26	3	1-4	1-3	—	+2	8	3
Q. PostC · #21	6	2	1-3	0-2	—	-4	0	0
B. HieldG · #7	15	6	2-7	1-5	1-1	-2	1	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	17	4	2-6	0-1	—	-32	3	0
D. MeltonG · #8	23	22	9-15	1-4	3-6	+22	3	2
W. RichardG · #3	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	0	2
Team		115	43-96	15-46	14-18		35	29
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, P. Spencer

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	27	10	3-4	—	4-5	+22	12	1
C. MartinF · #16	20	0	0-2	0-1	—	-24	2	1
N. MarshallF · #13	34	30	10-12	2-3	8-8	+17	7	9
C. FlaggF · #32	30	21	8-18	1-5	4-7	+22	11	2
M. ChristieG · #00	36	21	7-16	5-12	2-2	+28	4	2
Bench
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	22	10	4-9	2-3	—	-13	6	3
J. Robinson-EarlF · #23	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
M. CisseC · #30	6	1	0-2	—	1-2	-7	1	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	23	6	2-6	2-6	—	-12	4	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	27	19	7-10	0-2	5-6	+2	5	4
R. NembhardG · #9	12	5	2-6	1-2	—	+10	2	3
M. KellyG · #14	1	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		123	43-86	13-35	24-30		54	25
DNP: D. Russell, J. Hardy

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

43-96

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-86

FG %

15-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-35

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 25

DAL116@

GS126

Jan 23

GS115@

DAL123today

Mar 24

GS137@

DAL131

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-25071%

DAL+20533%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat GS 123-115. N. Marshall paced them with 30 PTS, 7 REB, 9 AST. DAL outscored the other side 39-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 19 REB · 19 AST

GS 54

Bench(7)

47 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 42

DALstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST

GS 66

Bench(7)

41 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL3rd Quarter · 2:21 · 80-82

+18pp→ 54% WP

Klay Thompson · bad pass turnover (Al Horford steals)

GS4th Quarter · 8:56 · 96-93

+29pp→ 75% WP

Gary Payton II · enters the game for Gui Santos

DAL4th Quarter · 6:49 · 101-103

+13pp→ 72% WP

Dwight Powell · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	27	23	39	26	115
DAL	24	31	29	39	123

Period scoring

GS won 2 · DAL won 2

Curry 9

Marshall 6

Curry 4

Williams 8

Curry 13

Marshall 11

Curry 12

Marshall 11

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

45%

43-96

50%

43-86

33%

15-46

3PT

37%

13-35

78%

14-18

80%

24-30

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·4.6
Mavericks defensive team rebound
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·6.0
Brandin Podziemski misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·9.2
Naji Marshall back court turnover
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·30.7
Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)
·
GS 115·DAL 123
Q4·35.9
Naji Marshall lost ball turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
·
GS 112·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Brandin Podziemski makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 112·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Buddy Hield enters the game for Al Horford
·
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Quinten Post enters the game for Stephen Curry
·
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Will Richard enters the game for De'Anthony Melton
·
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Miles Kelly enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Caleb Martin enters the game for Max Christie
·
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Brandin Podziemski misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·57.3
Cooper Flagg shooting foul
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·59.9
Al Horford defensive rebound
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·1:01
Cooper Flagg misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·1:22
Brandon Williams defensive rebound
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·1:25
Stephen Curry misses 23-foot fade away jump shot
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·1:40
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 111·DAL 123
Q4·1:40
Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 111·DAL 122
Q4·1:40
Brandin Podziemski shooting foul
GS 111·DAL 121
Q4·2:05
De'Anthony Melton makes driving layup (Moses Moody assists)
·
GS 111·DAL 121
Q4·2:24
P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)
·
GS 109·DAL 121
+1pp
Q4·2:40
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 109·DAL 118
Q4·2:40
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 108·DAL 118
+0.7pp
Q4·2:40
De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 108·DAL 118
−2pp
Q4·2:40
(02:40) [Mavericks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Mavericks] charged with a timeout
GS 108·DAL 118
+3pp
Q4·2:40
Mavericks Full timeout
GS 108·DAL 118

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 234.5·GS -250/DAL +205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Golden State Warriors, 123–115.

DAL +6.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
P.J. WashingtonDAL · F
CONT6.789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.1

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR