NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6PHI

HOU

26-16

122128

PHI

24-19

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesPHI leads series 1-0VegasHOU -1.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHI · top performer

Joel Embiid

C · #21

31.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 46pp · OT · 4:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	44	36	13-21	5-8	5-6	-15	7	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	38	13	5-15	1-10	2-2	-13	4	5
A. SengunC · #28	38	13	5-14	1-2	2-7	-18	8	7
J. OkogieG · #20	22	8	3-4	2-2	—	+6	2	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	17	7-11	—	3-5	+3	6	9
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	15	6	2-4	2-4	—	+7	2	1
T. EasonF · #17	28	13	5-12	3-7	0-1	-18	9	2
C. CapelaC · #30	15	2	1-4	—	0-2	+12	7	0
R. SheppardG · #15	23	14	5-14	4-7	0-1	+6	1	4
Team		122	46-99	18-40	12-24		46	33
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	37	10	4-9	2-5	—	-1	6	4
J. EmbiidC · #21	46	32	10-19	1-3	11-12	+21	15	10
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	41	26	10-14	4-5	2-3	+9	4	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	43	36	15-28	2-10	4-4	+8	2	10
V. EdgecombeG · #77	40	9	4-9	1-6	—	+13	7	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	11	4	2-3	—	—	-6	3	3
D. BarlowF · #25	21	7	3-5	1-2	—	+12	5	3
A. BonaC · #30	7	1	—	—	1-2	-15	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	19	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	-11	1	3
Team		128	49-89	11-32	19-22		46	41
DNP: J. Walker, J. Edwards, A. Drummond, K. Lowry, E. Gordon, J. McCain

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

46-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-89

FG %

18-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

12-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI leads series 1-0

Jan 23

HOU122@

PHI128today

Apr 10

PHI102@

HOU113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-13557%

PHI+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat HOU 128-122. J. Embiid stuffed the line with 32 PTS, 15 REB, and 10 AST. PHI outscored the other side 36-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHI vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 27 REB · 26 AST

GS 73

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

PHIstarters 88% of pts

Starters(5)

113 PTS · 34 REB · 31 AST

GS 103

Bench(4)

15 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 15.5 · 115-115

+26pp→ 52% WP

Kevin Durant · misses 21-foot pullup jump shot

PHIOT · 54.8 · 120-124

+20pp→ 89% WP

Kevin Durant · offensive foul

HOUOT · 4:37 · 115-115

+46pp→ 46% WP

Alperen Sengun · bad pass turnover (Paul George steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
HOU	34	27	27	27	7	122
PHI	32	36	22	25	13	128

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · PHI won 2

Durant 7

Grimes 19

Durant 9

Embiid 12

Durant 9

Jr. 8

Sheppard 9

Maxey 11

Durant 5

Maxey 6

HOU

PHI

Shooting comparison

HOU

PHI

46%

46-99

55%

49-89

45%

18-40

3PT

34%

11-32

50%

12-24

86%

19-22

Play-by-play · 499 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
HOU 122·PHI 128
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
HOU 122·PHI 128
+1pp
OT·6.4
Tyrese Maxey makes running dunk (Joel Embiid assists)
·
HOU 122·PHI 128
+4pp
OT·13.7
Amen Thompson lost ball turnover (VJ Edgecombe steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 122·PHI 126
+8pp
OT·18.9
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 122·PHI 126
−5pp
OT·18.9
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 122·PHI 125
+1pp
OT·18.9
Amen Thompson personal take foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 122·PHI 124
+12pp
OT·23.3
Kevin Durant makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Tari Eason assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 122·PHI 124
−6pp
OT·23.7
Tari Eason offensive rebound
HOU 120·PHI 124
−4pp
OT·27.5
Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 124
+5pp
OT·28.6
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
HOU 120·PHI 124
−5pp
OT·31.5
Kevin Durant misses 27-foot running jump shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 124
+6pp
OT·35.8
VJ Edgecombe lost ball turnover (Tari Eason steals)
·
HOU 120·PHI 124
−5pp
OT·54.8
Kevin Durant offensive foul turnover
HOU 120·PHI 124
OT·54.8
Kevin Durant offensive foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 124
+20pp
OT·56.3
Paul George loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 124
−17pp
OT·56.3
Rockets offensive team rebound
HOU 120·PHI 124
−4pp
OT·56.5
Kevin Durant misses driving floating jump shot
HOU 120·PHI 124
+5pp
OT·1:10
Kelly Oubre Jr. makes running layupBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 124
+6pp
OT·1:13
Paul George defensive rebound
HOU 120·PHI 122
+3pp
OT·1:16
Paul George blocks Alperen Sengun 's 4-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 120·PHI 122
+8pp
OT·1:32
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
HOU 120·PHI 122
−2pp
OT·1:34
Tyrese Maxey misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 122
−16pp
OT·1:47
Amen Thompson personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 122
+13pp
OT·2:05
Tari Eason lost ball turnover (Tyrese Maxey steals)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 120·PHI 122
+10pp
OT·2:28
Tyrese Maxey makes 3-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 122
+9pp
OT·2:36
Amen Thompson makes layupBIG MOMENT
HOU 120·PHI 120
−8pp
OT·2:52
Paul George personal foul
HOU 118·PHI 120
OT·2:53
Tari Eason defensive rebound
HOU 118·PHI 120
−2pp
OT·2:54
VJ Edgecombe misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
HOU 118·PHI 120
−5pp

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 221.5·HOU -135/PHI +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers held off Houston Rockets, 128–122 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownPHI
26.6± 6.3high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Marcus SmartHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

PHI

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.9%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.0%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.3

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.1

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR