NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27CHA

CHA

17-28

12497

ORL

23-20

NBAThu, Jan 22FinalSeriesCHA leads series 2-1VegasORL -3.5

CHA · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #8

19.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 19pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:11

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	30	10	4-12	1-5	1-2	+28	8	2
M. DiabateF · #14	16	10	4-4	—	2-3	+12	4	1
B. MillerF · #24	27	20	8-15	2-7	2-2	+20	2	4
L. BallG · #1	28	16	6-12	4-8	—	+9	6	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	28	13	4-11	1-6	4-4	+16	10	4
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	18	13	5-7	3-3	—	-1	5	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	27	10	3-3	—	4-6	+11	9	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	4	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	1
C. SextonG · #8	23	19	6-7	3-3	4-4	+12	0	4
J. GreenG · #10	16	6	2-4	2-2	—	+12	0	0
A. ReevesG · #12	3	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	20	7	1-3	1-2	4-4	+18	3	3
Team		124	43-79	17-36	21-25		47	26

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	30	23	6-12	2-4	9-12	-25	7	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	19	3	1-5	1-4	—	-19	3	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	20	4	2-6	0-3	—	-10	3	3
D. BaneG · #3	32	21	8-13	3-5	2-2	-15	5	4
A. BlackG · #0	28	4	1-11	1-5	1-2	-23	2	2
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	15	14	5-7	2-3	2-2	-5	1	1
J. IsaacF · #1	4	0	—	—	—	0	1	2
J. CainF · #8	4	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
N. PendaF · #93	19	13	5-6	2-2	1-2	-2	2	4
G. BitadzeC · #35	12	0	—	—	—	-11	2	1
T. JonesG · #2	16	3	1-7	1-5	—	-4	2	1
J. HowardG · #13	18	10	3-6	2-5	2-2	-6	1	1
J. RichardsonG · #11	23	2	1-5	0-1	—	-15	2	0
Team		97	33-79	14-37	17-22		31	25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

43-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-79

FG %

17-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-37

21-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 2-1

Oct 30

ORL123@

CHA107

Dec 27

CHA120@

ORL105

Jan 23

CHA124@

ORL97today

Mar 19

ORL111@

CHA130

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+14042%

ORL-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -3.5↗SpreadBet ORL -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat ORL 124-97. C. Sexton led with 19 PTS, 0 REB, 4 AST. CHA outscored the other side 35-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 56

Bench(7)

55 PTS · 17 REB · 8 AST

GS 53

ORLstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST

GS 37

Bench(8)

42 PTS · 11 REB · 10 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL1st Quarter · 2:28 · 18-11

+11pp→ 47% WP

Collin Sexton · lost ball turnover (Noah Penda steals)

ORL1st Quarter · 2:10 · 18-16

+14pp→ 58% WP

Tyus Jones · makes 26-foot three pointer (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)

CHA2nd Quarter · 8:11 · 45-28

+19pp→ 86% WP

Moritz Wagner · offensive foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	35	27	35	27	124
ORL	20	21	26	30	97

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · ORL won 1

Ball 8

Bane 5

Miller 6

Wagner 19

Miller 11

Banchero 11

Salaun 7

Wagner 12

CHA

ORL

Shooting comparison

CHA

ORL

54%

43-79

42%

33-79

47%

17-36

3PT

38%

14-37

84%

21-25

77%

17-22

Play-by-play · 444 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 124·ORL 97
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 124·ORL 97
Q4·21.0
Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHA 124·ORL 97
Q4·26.6
Sion James makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 124·ORL 94
Q4·26.6
Sion James makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 123·ORL 94
Q4·26.6
Jamal Cain shooting foul
CHA 122·ORL 94
Q4·46.3
Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound
CHA 122·ORL 94
Q4·49.2
Jett Howard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 122·ORL 94
Q4·1:01
Tidjane Salaun makes running layup
CHA 122·ORL 94
Q4·1:04
Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:07
Jamal Cain misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:14
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:16
Tidjane Salaun misses 3-foot floating jump shot
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:18
Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:22
Jonathan Isaac blocks Pat Connaughton 's 3-foot two point shot
·
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:29
Sion James vs. Jase Richardson (Pat Connaughton gains possession)
· ·
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:48
Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·1:51
Jase Richardson misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·2:02
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive foul turnover
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·2:02
Ryan Kalkbrenner offensive foul
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·2:18
Noah Penda makes 25-foot three pointer (Jonathan Isaac assists)
·
CHA 120·ORL 94
Q4·2:39
Sion James makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 120·ORL 91
Q4·2:39
Antonio Reeves enters the game for Josh Green
·
CHA 119·ORL 91
Q4·2:39
Sion James makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 119·ORL 91
Q4·2:39
Jamal Cain shooting foul
CHA 118·ORL 91
Q4·3:06
Noah Penda makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Jonathan Isaac assists)
·
CHA 118·ORL 91
Q4·3:21
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Pat Connaughton assists)
·
CHA 118·ORL 89
Q4·3:37
Noah Penda out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHA 116·ORL 89
Q4·3:47
Noah Penda defensive rebound
CHA 116·ORL 89
Q4·3:49
Sion James misses driving layup
CHA 116·ORL 89

Betting line

ORL -3.5·O/U 224.5·CHA +140/ORL -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 124–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA +3.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

ORL

55.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

26.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR