OKC
37-8
MIL
18-25
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
40
Pts
7
Reb
11
Ast
MIL · top performer
Giannis Antetokounmpo
F · #34
19
Pts
14
Reb
7
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 10 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 3-4 | +11 | 7 | 2 | |
| 33 | 40 | 16-19 | 2-2 | 6-7 | +19 | 7 | 11 | |
| 33 | 13 | 5-11 | 3-7 | — | +8 | 4 | 3 | |
| 31 | 9 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | +5 | 2 | 2 | |
| 25 | 18 | 8-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | +13 | 3 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 0 | — | — | — | +11 | 3 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | +9 | 6 | 1 | |
| 28 | 18 | 8-13 | 2-5 | 0-1 | +6 | 8 | 2 | |
| 25 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-7 | — | +14 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | +2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 122 | 49-90 | 14-36 | 10-15 | 42 | 24 | ||
| DNP: A. Wiggins | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 19 | 8-11 | — | 3-6 | -11 | 14 | 7 | |
| 28 | 9 | 4-12 | 0-5 | 1-1 | -20 | 4 | 0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -15 | 0 | 1 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5-10 | 4-9 | 1-1 | -14 | 3 | 1 | |
| 29 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-5 | — | -9 | 3 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 37 | 15 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-5 | — | +3 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 6 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | — | -10 | 2 | 0 | |
| 24 | 17 | 7-9 | 3-4 | — | -7 | 3 | 3 | |
| Team | 102 | 40-81 | 16-41 | 6-9 | 39 | 30 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
49
24
Ast
30
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
MIL
Home
49-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-81
54
FG %
49
14-36
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
16-41
10-15
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
6-9
24
Assists
30
8
Turnovers
16
Season series
OKC leads series 1-0
OKC122@MIL102todayMIL110@OKC93Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -12.5
Between 10 and —
Total
225.5
Standard · -0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-55085%MIL+41020%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
12.5
0.0 since open
Total
225.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat MIL 122-102. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points and 11 assists. OKC outscored the other side 38-18 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIL vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 74% of ptsStarters(5)
90 PTS · 23 REB · 20 AST
GS 85
Bench(6)
32 PTS · 19 REB · 4 AST
GS 25
MILstarters 55% of ptsStarters(5)
56 PTS · 24 REB · 16 AST
GS 44
Bench(8)
46 PTS · 15 REB · 14 AST
GS 34
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 38 | 31 | 30 | 23 | 122 |
| MIL | 18 | 33 | 26 | 25 | 102 |
Period scoring
OKC won 2 · MIL won 2
Q1
Mitchell 12
Nance 6
Q2
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Portis 10
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 15
Green 7
Q4
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Carlson 9
Shooting comparison
54%
49-90
FG
49%
40-81
39%
14-36
3PT
39%
16-41
67%
10-15
FT
67%
6-9
Play-by-play · 424 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·20.1
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·23.8
Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·38.2
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·41.3
Ousmane Dieng misses 12-foot fade away jump shot
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·47.9
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·50.9
Andre Jackson Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·1:15
Branden Carlson makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Kenrich Williams assists)
·
OKC 122·MIL 102
- Q4·1:23
Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:26
Cole Anthony bad pass turnover (Brooks Barnhizer steals)
·
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:33
Chris Youngblood enters the game for Isaiah Joe
·
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:33
Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:33
Kenrich Williams personal foul
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:42
Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three pointer (Isaiah Joe assists)
·
OKC 120·MIL 102
- Q4·1:52
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·1:55
Cason Wallace misses driving floating jump shot
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:01
Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:11
Thunder defensive team rebound
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:11
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Brooks Barnhizer enters the game for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Amir Coffey enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Pete Nance
· ·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for AJ Green
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Cole Anthony enters the game for Ryan Rollins
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Jericho Sims enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:28
Kenrich Williams kicked ball violation
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:35
Kenrich Williams makes layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 117·MIL 102
- Q4·2:54
Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three pointer (Bobby Portis assists)
·
OKC 115·MIL 102
Betting line
OKC -12.5·O/U 225.5·OKC -550/MIL +410
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 122–102. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
OKC -12.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · FUSG%36.699+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIL vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.1± 2.3high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC0.8± 0.8high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
MIL
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
118.5
PPG
114.9
110.6
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5