NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CLE

CLE

25-20

9487

CHA

16-28

NBAWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesCLE leads series 2-1VegasCLE -3.5

CLE · top performer

Jarrett Allen

C · #31

11.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

14.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 8pp · 1st Quarter · 1:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	27	4	1-3	0-2	2-2	+11	9	4
J. AllenC · #31	35	13	4-8	—	5-6	-3	9	0
E. MobleyC · #4	36	14	6-13	0-4	2-3	+10	14	0
D. MitchellG · #45	37	24	8-20	2-8	6-7	-3	3	6
J. TysonG · #20	31	14	6-17	1-9	1-2	+14	7	4
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	13	5	2-3	1-1	—	+14	2	1
D. HunterF · #12	13	4	1-6	1-6	1-2	-7	4	1
N. TomlinF · #35	21	6	3-7	0-3	—	0	9	2
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	18	7	2-5	2-3	1-2	-5	1	2
T. ProctorG · #24	10	3	1-5	1-4	—	+4	2	0
Team		94	34-87	8-40	18-24		60	20
DNP: T. Bryant, L. Ball

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	26	11	5-13	1-5	0-1	-29	1	1
M. DiabateF · #14	29	4	1-1	—	2-6	+1	5	0
B. MillerF · #24	34	24	8-20	3-11	5-5	-19	4	2
S. JamesG · #4	22	0	0-2	—	—	-11	1	1
K. KnueppelG · #7	31	21	8-21	2-10	3-3	+8	11	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	25	0	0-6	0-5	—	+19	5	4
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	7	3-5	—	1-1	-3	4	1
C. SextonG · #8	15	11	5-12	1-4	—	+3	2	0
J. GreenG · #10	19	7	2-3	1-2	2-2	+12	9	2
L. BallG · #1	22	2	1-15	0-10	—	-16	5	7
Team		87	33-98	8-47	13-18		47	20
DNP: T. Salaun, P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

34-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-98

FG %

8-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-47

18-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE leads series 2-1

Dec 14

CHA119@

CLE111

Dec 23

CHA132@

CLE139

Jan 22

CLE94@

CHA87today

Feb 21

CLE118@

CHA113

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

238.5

High-scoring · +12.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-15561%

CHA+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗SpreadBet CLE -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

238.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat CHA 94-87. J. Allen led with 13 PTS, 9 REB, 0 AST. CLE outscored the other side 33-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 42 REB · 14 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST

GS 17

CHAstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 37

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 25 REB · 14 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA1st Quarter · 1:41 · 31-18

+8pp→ 15% WP

De'Andre Hunter · misses 25-foot three point jumper

CLE4th Quarter · 10:10 · 76-69

+7pp→ 87% WP

Kon Knueppel · technical foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	33	23	20	18	94
CHA	20	12	32	23	87

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · CHA won 2

Mitchell 8

Hunter 10

Mobley 6

Sexton 5

Allen 7

Miller 17

Tyson 7

Knueppel 9

CLE

CHA

Shooting comparison

CLE

CHA

39%

34-87

34%

33-98

20%

8-40

3PT

17%

8-47

75%

18-24

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 537 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 94·CHA 87
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 94·CHA 87
Q4·0.0
Hornets offensive team rebound
CLE 94·CHA 87
Q4·0.0
Grant Williams misses heave jump shot
CLE 94·CHA 87
Q4·2.3
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 94·CHA 87
Q4·2.3
Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 93·CHA 87
Q4·2.3
Sion James personal take foul
CLE 92·CHA 87
Q4·2.3
Jarrett Allen defensive rebound
CLE 92·CHA 87
Q4·2.6
Brandon Miller misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 92·CHA 87
−4pp
Q4·9.9
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Moussa Diabate
· ·
CLE 92·CHA 87
Q4·9.9
Hornets Full timeout
CLE 92·CHA 87
Q4·9.9
Hornets defensive team rebound
CLE 92·CHA 87
−0.6pp
Q4·11.9
Jaylon Tyson misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 92·CHA 87
+4pp
Q4·11.9
Jaylon Tyson makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 92·CHA 87
Q4·11.9
Kon Knueppel personal take foul
CLE 91·CHA 87
−3pp
Q4·12.8
Kon Knueppel makes driving layup
CLE 91·CHA 87
+1pp
Q4·19.4
Moussa Diabate offensive rebound
CLE 91·CHA 85
+1pp
Q4·21.2
Kon Knueppel misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 91·CHA 85
−2pp
Q4·27.1
Hornets Full timeout
CLE 91·CHA 85
Q4·27.1
Dean Wade offensive foul turnover
CLE 91·CHA 85
Q4·27.1
Dean Wade offensive foul
CLE 91·CHA 85
+1pp
Q4·46.1
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 91·CHA 85
Q4·46.1
Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointer
CLE 91·CHA 85
+2pp
Q4·55.9
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
CLE 91·CHA 82
Q4·58.3
Dean Wade misses 23-foot three point jumper
CLE 91·CHA 82
Q4·1:14
Brandon Miller makes 2-foot two point shot (Kon Knueppel assists)
·
CLE 91·CHA 82
Q4·1:28
Jaylon Tyson makes 1-foot running dunk (Dean Wade assists)
·
CLE 91·CHA 80
Q4·1:30
Brandon Miller bad pass turnover (Dean Wade steals)
·
CLE 89·CHA 80
−1pp
Q4·1:41
Grant Williams defensive rebound
CLE 89·CHA 80
Q4·1:44
Jaylon Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper
CLE 89·CHA 80
+0.5pp

Betting line

CLE -3.5·O/U 238.5·CLE -155/CHA +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 94–87.

CLE -3.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 238.5 by 57.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

CHA

55.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.0%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR