NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20GS

CHA

15-27

116136

24-19

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-0VegasGS -7.5

CHA · top performer

Kon Knueppel

G · #7

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

De'Anthony Melton

G · #8

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 11pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	30	9	4-12	1-6	—	-15	4	2
B. MillerF · #24	30	28	11-19	6-11	—	-5	6	5
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	24	4	2-3	—	0-1	+3	7	3
S. JamesG · #4	24	2	0-5	0-3	2-2	-7	2	3
K. KnueppelG · #7	29	24	9-14	4-5	2-2	-21	11	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	18	7	3-5	1-3	—	-17	0	2
T. SalaunF · #31	17	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	0	4	2
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	4	5	2-4	0-1	1-2	-3	1	0
C. SextonG · #8	24	17	6-10	2-4	3-4	-15	3	3
J. GreenG · #10	15	0	—	—	—	-8	1	1
L. BallG · #1	21	15	5-17	1-8	4-4	-9	4	2
T. MannG · #23	4	3	1-3	1-2	—	-3	1	2
Team		116	43-94	16-44	14-17		44	27

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	27	20	8-14	4-8	—	-4	3	6
Q. PostC · #21	19	7	3-5	1-3	—	0	7	2
S. CurryG · #30	30	14	6-12	2-8	—	+2	3	5
M. MoodyG · #4	27	12	4-6	4-6	—	+6	1	2
W. RichardG · #3	31	11	5-12	1-5	—	+24	6	5
Bench
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	4	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
A. HorfordC · #20	19	11	4-7	2-4	1-1	+20	2	1
B. HieldG · #7	18	14	5-8	2-5	2-2	+10	3	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	12	5	2-3	1-1	—	+2	2	2
D. MeltonG · #8	21	24	8-16	3-6	5-5	+24	6	3
P. SpencerG · #61	4	0	—	—	—	0	2	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	30	16	5-9	3-6	3-5	+16	6	7
Team		136	51-93	23-52	11-13		41	34
DNP: J. Butler III, J. Kuminga, G. Santos

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

Home

43-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-93

FG %

16-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

23-52

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-0

Dec 31

GS132@

CHA125

Jan 18

CHA116@

GS136today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA+24029%

GS-29875%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -7.5↗SpreadBet GS -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat CHA 136-116. D. Melton led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. GS outscored the other side 39-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 53

Bench(7)

49 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 31

GSstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 20 REB · 20 AST

GS 55

Bench(7)

72 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 68

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS3rd Quarter · 6:06 · 79-85

+6pp→ 77% WP

Draymond Green · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)

GS3rd Quarter · 5:27 · 81-88

+6pp→ 80% WP

Gary Payton II · makes 24-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	28	29	37	22	116
GS	39	30	43	24	136

Period scoring

CHA won 0 · GS won 4

Miller 8

Green 8

Miller 9

Podziemski 7

Knueppel 10

Melton 13

Miller 5

Richard 5

CHA

Shooting comparison

CHA

46%

43-94

55%

51-93

36%

16-44

3PT

44%

23-52

82%

14-17

85%

11-13

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 116·GS 136
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 116·GS 136
Q4·8.7
Quinten Post defensive rebound
CHA 116·GS 136
Q4·15.5
Pat Connaughton misses 2-foot two point shot
CHA 116·GS 136
Q4·30.4
Buddy Hield makes driving layup
CHA 116·GS 136
Q4·50.5
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
CHA 116·GS 134
Q4·52.0
Pat Connaughton misses free throw 2 of 2
CHA 116·GS 134
Q4·52.0
Pat Connaughton makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 116·GS 134
Q4·52.0
Quinten Post loose ball foul
·
CHA 115·GS 134
Q4·52.0
Hornets offensive team rebound
CHA 115·GS 134
Q4·52.0
Collin Sexton misses 10-foot pullup jump shot
CHA 115·GS 134
Q4·1:07
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 2-foot driving dunk (Will Richard assists)
·
CHA 115·GS 134
Q4·1:16
Will Richard defensive rebound
CHA 115·GS 132
Q4·1:20
Tre Mann misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 115·GS 132
Q4·1:27
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 115·GS 132
Q4·1:31
Buddy Hield misses 31-foot three point jumper
CHA 115·GS 132
Q4·1:43
Pat Connaughton makes 3-foot two point shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 115·GS 132
Q4·1:54
Buddy Hield makes 4-foot two point shot
CHA 113·GS 132
Q4·2:07
Pat Connaughton makes 3-foot two point shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 113·GS 130
Q4·2:13
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 111·GS 130
Q4·2:18
Will Richard misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 111·GS 130
Q4·2:35
Tre Mann makes 28-foot three pointer
CHA 111·GS 130
Q4·2:43
Will Richard personal foul
CHA 108·GS 130
Q4·2:53
Will Richard makes 3-foot running dunk
CHA 108·GS 130
Q4·2:56
Collin Sexton lost ball turnover (Will Richard steals)
· ·
CHA 108·GS 128
Q4·3:07
Buddy Hield enters the game for Brandin Podziemski
·
CHA 108·GS 128
Q4·3:07
Will Richard steps out of bounds turnover
CHA 108·GS 128
Q4·3:20
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
CHA 108·GS 128
Q4·3:22
Collin Sexton misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
CHA 108·GS 128
Q4·3:35
Pat Spencer enters the game for Al Horford
·
CHA 108·GS 128

Betting line

GS -7.5·O/U 236.5·CHA +240/GS -298

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Charlotte Hornets, 136–116. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

GS -7.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Stephen CurryGS · G
USG%31.597
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
Brandon MillerCHA · F
USG%27.893
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

46.2%

115.8

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR