NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18DAL

UTAH

14-28

120138

DAL

17-26

NBASat, Jan 17FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDAL -3.5

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Brandon Williams

G · #10

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 10:05

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	29	13	6-11	1-4	—	-17	12	5
C. WilliamsF · #5	28	11	5-8	1-2	—	-20	4	2
K. GeorgeG · #3	37	29	9-15	4-6	7-8	-8	1	6
I. CollierG · #8	22	9	4-8	1-3	—	-22	1	4
A. BaileyG · #19	37	18	8-16	2-6	—	-26	8	1
Bench
K. AndersonF · #2	19	8	4-6	—	0-2	-1	2	2
T. HendricksF · #0	12	2	1-1	—	—	+4	4	0
B. SensabaughF · #28	30	25	10-20	1-7	4-6	-2	6	2
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	27	5	1-4	0-3	3-4	+2	3	8
Team		120	48-89	10-31	14-20		41	30
DNP: K. Love, J. Nurkic, S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. PowellF · #7	27	10	3-3	—	4-8	+35	8	3
C. MartinF · #16	21	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	+22	6	5
N. MarshallF · #13	29	16	7-10	1-2	1-3	+26	5	6
B. WilliamsG · #10	28	22	8-13	2-4	4-4	+30	4	5
M. ChristieG · #00	26	22	7-13	3-6	5-6	+29	2	4
Bench
J. Robinson-EarlF · #23	20	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	-6	4	2
M. CisseC · #30	21	9	4-6	—	1-4	-17	10	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	20	23	7-12	6-11	3-3	+1	0	3
R. NembhardG · #9	20	7	2-5	2-2	1-2	-12	1	4
M. KellyG · #14	11	8	3-8	2-6	—	-9	3	1
J. HardyG · #1	17	12	5-13	2-6	0-2	-9	1	3
Team		138	49-91	18-41	22-36		44	36
DNP: D. Gafford

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

48-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-91

FG %

10-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-41

14-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-36

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Dec 16

DAL133@

UTAH140

Jan 9

DAL114@

UTAH116

Jan 16

UTAH122@

DAL144

Jan 17

UTAH120@

DAL138today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+13043%

DAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗SpreadBet DAL -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat UTAH 138-120. B. Williams led with 22 PTS, 4 REB, 5 AST. DAL outscored the other side 42-29 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 26 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 28

DALstarters 53% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST

GS 75

Bench(6)

65 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH3rd Quarter · 10:05 · 61-74

+8pp→ 8% WP

Caleb Martin · misses driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	29	30	35	26	120
DAL	42	29	35	32	138

Period scoring

UTAH won 1 · DAL won 2

Sensabaugh 10

Thompson 11

George 7

Thompson 12

George 15

George 42

Bailey 6

Christie 22

UTAH

DAL

Shooting comparison

UTAH

DAL

54%

48-89

54%

49-91

32%

10-31

3PT

44%

18-41

70%

14-20

61%

22-36

Play-by-play · 485 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 120·DAL 138
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 120·DAL 138
Q4·23.5
Miles Kelly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)
·
UTAH 120·DAL 138
Q4·38.7
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 135
Q4·41.3
Keyonte George misses 11-foot two point shot
UTAH 120·DAL 135
Q4·57.0
Moussa Cisse makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Miles Kelly assists)
·
UTAH 120·DAL 135
Q4·1:01
Miles Kelly defensive rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:04
Kyle Filipowski misses 25-foot three point jumper
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:18
Cody Williams defensive rebound
·
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:23
Jaden Hardy misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:23
Mavericks offensive team rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:23
Jaden Hardy misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:23
Kyle Filipowski personal foul
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:27
Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:31
Ace Bailey misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:39
Moussa Cisse traveling turnover
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·1:50
Ace Bailey makes layup (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
UTAH 120·DAL 133
Q4·2:05
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 118·DAL 133
Q4·2:07
Moussa Cisse misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 118·DAL 133
Q4·2:07
Moussa Cisse makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 118·DAL 133
Q4·2:07
Ace Bailey shooting foul
UTAH 118·DAL 132
Q4·2:07
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
UTAH 118·DAL 132
Q4·2:09
Miles Kelly misses 23-foot three point jumper
UTAH 118·DAL 132
Q4·2:22
Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 118·DAL 132
Q4·2:22
Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 117·DAL 132
Q4·2:22
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 116·DAL 132
Q4·2:22
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl shooting foul
UTAH 116·DAL 132
Q4·2:23
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 132
Q4·2:27
Ryan Nembhard misses driving layup
UTAH 116·DAL 132
Q4·2:38
Miles Kelly offensive rebound
UTAH 116·DAL 132

Betting line

DAL -3.5·O/U 240.5·UTAH +130/DAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks held off Utah Jazz, 138–120.

DAL -3.5 cashed (won by 18). Total cleared the 240.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Brandon WilliamsDAL · G
DRIVES10.890
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH · F
CONT5.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

DAL

53.6%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR