NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+41LAC

SAC

8-25

90131

LAC

11-21

NBATue, Dec 30FinalSeriesLAC lead series 1-0VegasLAC -9.5

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

13.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

31.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ LAC

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	17	0	0-4	—	—	-17	3	2
K. MurrayF · #13	30	11	4-13	1-4	2-2	-27	2	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	35	12	5-8	0-1	2-2	-21	12	0
R. WestbrookG · #18	19	12	4-10	2-4	2-2	-21	3	4
D. DeRozanG · #10	28	8	2-8	0-2	4-5	-19	7	3
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	7	3	1-2	1-2	—	-2	1	0
D. EubanksF · #19	13	6	3-4	—	—	-20	3	0
D. SchroderG · #17	25	11	4-10	1-2	2-2	-20	3	4
M. MonkG · #0	11	3	1-2	1-1	—	-16	2	0
D. CarterG · #22	7	4	2-5	0-3	—	-2	0	0
K. EllisG · #23	19	2	1-5	0-3	—	-20	2	2
N. CliffordG · #5	29	18	7-12	3-5	1-1	-20	1	2
Team		90	34-83	9-27	13-14		39	18
DNP: D. Saric

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	33	33	11-19	5-9	6-7	+31	5	5
J. CollinsF · #20	22	16	6-9	2-4	2-2	+15	5	1
B. LopezC · #11	23	8	2-9	2-4	2-2	+14	6	3
J. HardenG · #1	30	21	6-14	1-6	8-10	+19	3	5
K. DunnG · #8	21	10	4-7	2-4	—	+16	6	1
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	19	3	1-3	1-3	—	+24	1	2
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	20	8	3-5	1-1	1-1	+23	1	3
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	25	16	6-8	0-1	4-6	+27	6	2
J. MillerG · #22	7	6	3-4	0-1	—	+2	1	0
K. BrownG · #24	7	3	1-3	0-1	1-2	+2	1	2
K. SandersG · #4	26	7	3-8	0-3	1-2	+30	6	4
C. ChristieG · #12	7	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	1	1
Team		131	46-90	14-38	25-32		42	29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

34-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-90

FG %

9-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

13-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 1-0

Dec 31

SAC90@

LAC131today

Feb 7

LAC114@

SAC111

Mar 15

SAC118@

LAC109

Apr 6

LAC138@

SAC109

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+29525%

LAC-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -9.5↗SpreadBet LAC -9.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat SAC 131-90. K. Leonard paced them with 33 PTS, 5 REB, 5 AST. LAC outscored the other side 39-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

43 PTS · 27 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

Bench(7)

47 PTS · 12 REB · 8 AST

GS 23

LACstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 86

Bench(7)

43 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	20	20	31	19	90
LAC	34	39	27	31	131

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · LAC won 3

DeRozan 5

Harden 12

Westbrook 5

Leonard 18

Clifford 10

Lopez 8

Carter 4

Leonard 12

SAC

LAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

LAC

41%

34-83

51%

46-90

33%

9-27

3PT

37%

14-38

93%

13-14

78%

25-32

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 90·LAC 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 90·LAC 131
Q4·14.1
Devin Carter makes 2-foot driving dunk
SAC 90·LAC 131
Q4·20.0
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SAC 88·LAC 131
Q4·22.9
Kobe Sanders misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 88·LAC 131
Q4·39.6
Kobe Sanders defensive rebound
SAC 88·LAC 131
Q4·44.0
Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·LAC 131
Q4·52.4
Jordan Miller makes 3-foot reverse layup (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
SAC 88·LAC 131
Q4·58.6
Keon Ellis out of bounds bad pass turnover
SAC 88·LAC 129
Q4·59.0
Kobe Brown personal foul
SAC 88·LAC 129
Q4·1:05
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SAC 88·LAC 129
Q4·1:08
Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses free throw 2 of 2
SAC 88·LAC 129
Q4·1:08
Yanic Konan Niederhauser makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 88·LAC 129
Q4·1:08
Maxime Raynaud shooting foul
SAC 88·LAC 128
Q4·1:29
Clippers defensive team rebound
SAC 88·LAC 128
Q4·1:32
Devin Carter misses 27-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·LAC 128
Q4·1:39
Kobe Sanders makes running layup (Kobe Brown assists)
·
SAC 88·LAC 128
Q4·1:42
Doug McDermott bad pass turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)
·
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·1:53
Doug McDermott defensive rebound
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·1:54
Kobe Brown misses two point shot
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·1:55
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·1:57
Jordan Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·2:13
Doug McDermott makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 88·LAC 126
Q4·2:32
Jordan Miller makes driving layup
SAC 85·LAC 126
Q4·2:48
Kobe Sanders defensive rebound
SAC 85·LAC 124
Q4·2:49
Jordan Miller blocks Nique Clifford 's 11-foot driving layup
·
SAC 85·LAC 124
Q4·2:56
Clippers Full timeout
SAC 85·LAC 124
Q4·2:56
Kobe Brown personal foul
SAC 85·LAC 124
Q4·3:01
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SAC 85·LAC 124
Q4·3:03
Kobe Brown misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SAC 85·LAC 124

Betting line

LAC -9.5·O/U 218.5·SAC +295/LAC -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Sacramento Kings, 131–90. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAC -9.5 cashed (won by 41). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Brandon IngramLAC
18.7± 10.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high
Darius GarlandLAC
1.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

LAC

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

113.9

25.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR