DET
25-8
LAL
20-11
DET · top performer
Cade Cunningham
G · #2
27
Pts
5
Reb
11
Ast
LAL · top performer
Luka Doncic
G · #77
30
Pts
5
Reb
11
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 10:10
NBA · Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 6 | 7 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +4 | 2 | 4 | |
| 28 | 14 | 6-8 | — | 2-4 | +1 | 8 | 2 | |
| 33 | 27 | 12-19 | 1-4 | 2-2 | +23 | 5 | 11 | |
| 22 | 7 | 3-6 | — | 1-4 | -11 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 3 | 1-3 | — | 1-1 | +2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 18 | 15 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 2-2 | +21 | 2 | 0 | |
| 19 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +19 | 7 | 0 | |
| 31 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +21 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 19 | 5-8 | 4-6 | 5-5 | +14 | 2 | 5 | |
| 17 | 9 | 4-5 | 1-1 | — | +20 | 2 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | — | — | — | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 128 | 48-76 | 11-24 | 21-29 | 37 | 30 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 17 | 6-17 | 3-10 | 2-5 | -16 | 4 | 4 | |
| 38 | 9 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -18 | 4 | 1 | |
| 26 | 10 | 5-8 | — | — | -9 | 2 | 0 | |
| 25 | 6 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | -24 | 2 | 5 | |
| 36 | 30 | 9-22 | 3-11 | 9-13 | -15 | 5 | 11 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | — | -4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 27 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | -17 | 8 | 1 | |
| 4 | 10 | 4-4 | 2-2 | — | +4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 18 | 13 | 5-5 | — | 3-5 | -17 | 2 | 2 | |
| 17 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team | 106 | 37-82 | 11-39 | 21-31 | 33 | 28 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
63
FG %
45
30
Ast
28
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
LAL
Home
48-76
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
37-82
63
FG %
45
11-24
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
11-39
21-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-31
30
Assists
28
18
Turnovers
20
Season series
DET leads series 1-0
DET128@LAL106todayLAL110@DET113Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DET -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET-14860%LAL+12445%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 4 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DET beat LAL 128-106. C. Cunningham paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 11 AST. DET outscored the other side 32-18 in the 4th quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAL vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 48% of ptsStarters(5)
61 PTS · 17 REB · 20 AST
GS 53
Bench(8)
67 PTS · 20 REB · 10 AST
GS 59
LALstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 17 REB · 21 AST
GS 45
Bench(7)
34 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST
GS 31
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCade Cunningham · lost ball turnover (Jake LaRavia steals)
Marcus Sasser · personal foul
Luka Doncic · enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 36 | 34 | 26 | 32 | 128 |
| LAL | 30 | 35 | 23 | 18 | 106 |
Period scoring
DET won 3 · LAL won 1
Q1
Cunningham 10
Doncic 13
Q2
Cunningham 10
James 10
Q3
II 7
Doncic 8
Q4
Sasser 8
Knecht 10
Shooting comparison
63%
48-76
FG
45%
37-82
46%
11-24
3PT
28%
11-39
72%
21-29
FT
68%
21-31
Play-by-play · 492 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·20.0
shot clock turnover
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·32.3
Ronald Holland II offensive rebound
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·35.6
Adou Thiero blocks Ronald Holland II 's 4-foot running layup
·
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·37.6
Marcus Sasser defensive rebound
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·42.3
Nick Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·57.0
Chaz Lanier makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 128·LAL 106
- Q4·57.0
Chaz Lanier makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 127·LAL 106
- Q4·57.0
Dalton Knecht personal foul
DET 126·LAL 106
- Q4·1:12
Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot running jump shot (Adou Thiero assists)
·
DET 126·LAL 106
- Q4·1:15
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
DET 126·LAL 103
- Q4·1:20
Marcus Sasser misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 126·LAL 103
- Q4·1:39
Marcus Sasser defensive rebound
DET 126·LAL 103
- Q4·1:39
Maxi Kleber misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 126·LAL 103
- Q4·1:56
Ronald Holland II makes 2-foot running dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
DET 126·LAL 103
- Q4·1:57
Daniss Jenkins defensive rebound
DET 124·LAL 103
- Q4·2:00
Isaiah Stewart blocks Adou Thiero 's 4-foot driving dunk
·
DET 124·LAL 103
- Q4·2:19
Daniss Jenkins traveling turnover
DET 124·LAL 103
- Q4·2:35
Dalton Knecht makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (Bronny James assists)
· ·
DET 124·LAL 103
- Q4·2:56
Marcus Sasser makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 124·LAL 101
- Q4·2:56
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 123·LAL 101
- Q4·2:56
Marcus Sasser makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 123·LAL 101
- Q4·2:56
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 122·LAL 101
- Q4·2:56
Adou Thiero personal foul
DET 122·LAL 101
- Q4·3:06
Dalton Knecht makes tip shot
DET 122·LAL 101
- Q4·3:07
Dalton Knecht offensive rebound
DET 122·LAL 99
- Q4·3:08
Maxi Kleber misses 26-foot running jump shot
DET 122·LAL 99
- Q4·3:12
Adou Thiero defensive rebound
DET 122·LAL 99
- Q4·3:15
Duncan Robinson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 122·LAL 99
Betting line
DET -2.5·O/U 233.5·DET -148/LAL +124
Recap · NBA
etroit Pistons went into Los Angeles Lakers and beat them, 128–106. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
DET -2.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 12 players in cohort- Luka DoncicLAL · GUSG%37.399+
- Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.997
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.596
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAL vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 140 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Austin ReavesLAL21.0± 6.8high
Rebounds
- Walker KesslerLAL10.7± 2.2low
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Luka DoncicLAL7.1± 2.1high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- Austin ReavesLAL5.4± 2.6high
Blocks
- Walker KesslerLAL1.8± 2.5low
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Paul ReedDET0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Collin SextonLAL1.6± 1.3high
- Walker KesslerLAL1.5± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
LAL
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶57.0%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
▶49.9%
115.9
PPG
114.9
114.8
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.1