NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10BOS

BOS

20-12

129119

UTAH

12-20

NBATue, Dec 30FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBOS -8.5

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

29.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Keyonte George

G · #3

30.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 10:36

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. QuetaC · #88	29	12	6-7	—	—	-5	3	0
D. WhiteG · #9	36	27	8-16	2-10	9-9	+3	7	6
J. BrownG · #7	34	23	9-19	1-3	4-6	+2	6	10
P. PritchardG · #11	35	18	8-15	1-7	1-1	+1	4	6
J. WalshG · #27	13	6	2-4	1-3	1-2	-7	3	0
Bench
S. HauserF · #30	17	5	2-8	1-7	—	+7	5	0
L. GarzaC · #52	19	15	6-8	2-2	1-1	+13	6	0
A. SimonsG · #4	28	20	6-15	4-10	4-4	+27	5	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	12	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	17	3	1-2	1-2	—	+7	4	1
Team		129	48-94	13-44	20-23		44	27
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, J. Minott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	38	22	6-16	2-6	8-8	+13	9	2
T. HendricksF · #0	17	3	1-4	1-4	—	+1	3	2
B. SensabaughF · #28	39	5	2-9	1-6	—	-13	5	3
J. NurkicC · #30	34	26	10-11	2-2	4-5	+9	8	8
K. GeorgeG · #3	39	37	13-24	6-12	5-6	+8	6	7
Bench
K. FilipowskiF · #22	14	10	3-8	2-5	2-4	-19	3	0
C. WilliamsF · #5	13	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-17	0	0
I. CollierG · #8	24	7	3-5	1-2	—	-16	6	8
W. Clayton Jr.G · #13	21	7	3-7	1-4	—	-16	0	1
Team		119	41-87	16-42	21-25		40	31
DNP: K. Anderson, O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

48-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-87

FG %

13-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-42

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 4

UTAH105@

BOS103

Dec 31

BOS129@

UTAH119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-29875%

UTAH+24029%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗SpreadBet BOS -8.5↗

Line movement · 4 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat UTAH 129-119. D. White paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. BOS outscored the other side 40-32 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 83

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 21 REB · 5 AST

GS 35

UTAHstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST

GS 81

Bench(4)

26 PTS · 9 REB · 9 AST

GS 16

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS4th Quarter · 11:27 · 101-96

+13pp→ 75% WP

Derrick White · makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Anfernee Simons assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 10:36 · 104-98

+24pp→ 82% WP

Anfernee Simons · makes free throw 1 of 2

BOS4th Quarter · 8:21 · 110-105

+10pp→ 76% WP

Derrick White · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	31	28	40	30	129
UTAH	38	26	32	23	119

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · UTAH won 1

Queta 8

George 15

Simons 7

George 8

White 9

Nurkic 12

White 13

George 16

BOS

UTAH

Shooting comparison

BOS

UTAH

51%

48-94

47%

41-87

30%

13-44

3PT

38%

16-42

87%

20-23

84%

21-25

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·8.1
shot clock turnover
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·29.4
Derrick White defensive rebound
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·32.3
Derrick White blocks Walter Clayton Jr. 's 3-foot driving layup
·
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·41.6
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 129·UTAH 119
Q4·41.6
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Jaylen Brown
·
BOS 128·UTAH 119
Q4·41.6
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
BOS 128·UTAH 119
Q4·41.6
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 128·UTAH 119
Q4·41.6
Cody Williams personal foul
BOS 127·UTAH 119
−0.6pp
Q4·45.8
Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic
·
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·45.8
Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh
·
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·45.8
Cody Williams enters the game for Lauri Markkanen
·
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·45.8
Isaiah Collier enters the game for Keyonte George
·
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·45.8
Sam Hauser enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·45.8
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 127·UTAH 119
Q4·59.5
Keyonte George makes 25-foot three pointer
BOS 127·UTAH 119
+0.8pp
Q4·1:06
Keyonte George defensive rebound
BOS 127·UTAH 116
Q4·1:08
Jaylen Brown misses 15-foot turnaround jump shot
BOS 127·UTAH 116
Q4·1:25
Anfernee Simons defensive rebound
BOS 127·UTAH 116
Q4·1:27
Lauri Markkanen misses 5-foot jumper
BOS 127·UTAH 116
Q4·1:40
Jaylen Brown makes 14-foot fade away jump shot
BOS 127·UTAH 116
−0.7pp
Q4·2:00
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 125·UTAH 116
Q4·2:00
Keyonte George misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 125·UTAH 116
−1pp
Q4·2:19
Jaylen Brown makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Derrick White assists)
·
BOS 125·UTAH 116
−2pp
Q4·2:40
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 123·UTAH 116
Q4·2:42
Lauri Markkanen makes 1-foot reverse layup
BOS 123·UTAH 116
+2pp
Q4·2:45
Lauri Markkanen offensive rebound
BOS 123·UTAH 114
+0.9pp
Q4·2:47
Walter Clayton Jr. misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 123·UTAH 114
−1pp
Q4·2:57
Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound
BOS 123·UTAH 114

Betting line

BOS -8.5·O/U 243.5·BOS -298/UTAH +240

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 129–119.

BOS -8.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 243.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · G
TOUCHES78.797
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

UTAH

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR