San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+2SD

16-7-1

12-11-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,723 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.5± 1.5low
Tyler MahleSF
5.2± 2.1low

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Casey SchmittSF
2.0± 2.3high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Rafael DeversSF
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

.725

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.308

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.06

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.31

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.36

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SF 1 · SD 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
SD	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OlivaCF	.344	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LeeRF	.429	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. SusacC	.313	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. EldridgeDH	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
H. BaderCF	.316	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. GilbertCF	.182	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
B. Kennedy1B	.346	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. Fitzgerald2B	.194	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. RodríguezC	.353	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
L. MatosRF	.275	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BrennanLF	.355	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.308	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Holton1B	.265	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Koss2B	.414	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AhunaSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. BasabeSS	.423	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	7	1	0	4	11

Player

.344

.429

.313

.231

.316

.182

.346

.194

.353

.275

.355

.308

.265

.414

.400

.423

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MahleSP	4.0	1	0	0	0	6	54
R. WalkerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
S. BivensRP	0.2	3	3	3	1	0	26
B. RoxbyP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. TidwellRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	15
C. KilianRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
Team	8.0	5	3	3	2	9	121

Player

4.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

121

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MerrillCF	.257	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. BogaertsSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.278	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
R. LaureanoLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. JohnsonRF	.293	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. France1B	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. CampusanoC	.172	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.350	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. WidemanCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.208	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.310	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.313	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. LottOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. VilarC	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Castanon2B	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	3	5	3	0	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	7	77
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	16
J. WolfSP	2.0	3	1	1	2	1	37
T. AdcockRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	7	1	1	4	11	150

Team

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs SF.