Washington Nationals vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+6WSH

WSH

12-7-3

126

NYM

11-9-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

6,052 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

NYM

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.300

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

4.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.12

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.28

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 12 · NYM 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	2	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	6	12
NYM	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.156	5	2	3	1	1	0	0
J. YoungCF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
D. CrewsRF	.107	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.192	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. LileLF	.176	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.226	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.167	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. TenaDH	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. AdamsC	.214	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
L. Arias3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.138	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. CoxRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ortiz1B	.136	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. NunezLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BrownSS	.500	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
V. Pena2B	.500	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. Stehly1B	.333	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
H. FordC	.214	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		41	12	14	10	1	4	8

Player

.156

.000

.107

.192

.176

.226

.167

.154

.214

.000

.138

.000

.136

.000

.500

.500

.333

.214

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. PenrodRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	24
G. McGarrySP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	23
K. WaldichukRP	2.0	3	1	0	2	0	32
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. FernandezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
J. RutledgeRP	1.0	2	2	1	0	1	19
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	14
Team	9.0	11	6	4	3	10	150

Player

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.406	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
M. Vientos1B	.040	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.381	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
J. Young1B	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. MauricioSS	.313	4	0	2	2	0	0	1
C. Arroyo2B	.222	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.069	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. BrujanSS	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PacheOF	.464	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
K. VillavicencioSS	.300	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SalgadoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. HouckSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Willhoite3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Y. HernándezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. SengerC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Schwartz1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	11	6	2	3	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. PetersonSP	4.0	5	4	4	2	2	69
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16
C. ScottSP	3.0	5	3	3	0	4	56
D. OrellanaSP	0.2	3	5	5	1	1	25
G. LouisRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	14	12	12	4	8	176

Team

WSH

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs WSH.