Pittsburgh Pirates vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+4MIN

PIT

15-8

MIN

8-14-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

7,363 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

MIN

.755

OPS

◀

.718

.734

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.322

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.85

4.14

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

PIT 1 · MIN 5 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
MIN	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumLF	.281	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. CallihanLF	.143	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.276	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.091	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. Yorke3B	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Gonzales3B	.474	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.267	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Flores Jr.C	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. GarciaRF	.469	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. De Los SantosSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RodriguezOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Gray3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. RossC	.462	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. GriffinSS	.206	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jared R. Jones1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. GonzalezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SanchezLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	6	1	0	2	12

Player

.281

.143

.276

.091

.278

.474

.267

.091

.469

.500

.000

.000

.462

.206

.280

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DavisRP	4.0	6	5	5	1	1	73
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
I. MattsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
M. Darrell-HicksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
B. BurrowsRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19
Team	8.0	10	5	5	2	5	144

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WallnerRF	.324	3	2	2	0	0	1	1
L. Keaschall2B	.400	2	1	2	3	1	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.259	4	0	0	1	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.172	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. JeffersC	.200	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodenLF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. MartinRF	.286	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CardenasC	.286	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Doncon3B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Salas2B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RosarioRF	.357	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.226	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	5	10	5	2	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	4.0	5	1	1	1	6	68
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
C. SandsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. TopaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
A. ChafinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	24
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	12	131

Team

PIT

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs PIT.