Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+9ATL

8-14-1

211

ATL

16-5-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

6,325 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
4.8± 2.9medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium
Nick MartinezTB
2.0± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

3.78

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.20

WHIP

1.31

1.21

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

TB 2 · ATL 11 (by 9)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
ATL	0	4	0	2	2	0	0	3	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Williamson2B	.375	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.304	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.242	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
T. WallsSS	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.318	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Delgado2B	.226	4	0	3	1	0	0	1
J. MeltonLF	.161	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.161	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GillenOF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Simpson1B	.455	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. PalmaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. PinedaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. DatilOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	2	10	2	1	1	8

Player

.375

.250

.304

.216

.242

.300

.318

.226

.161

.161

.125

.211

.455

.000

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	4.0	10	7	7	1	1	72
K. KellyRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	19
B. BakerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
M. EnglertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
Y. GomezRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	23
Team	8.0	15	11	11	2	3	146

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.323	4	1	2	1	0	0	0
D. BaldwinC	.333	4	1	2	4	1	1	1
M. Olson1B	.286	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.379	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.429	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
O. Albies2B	.263	3	1	1	2	0	0	1
M. Harris IICF	.333	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. WhiteRF	.414	2	2	2	2	1	0	0
J. MateoSS	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
E. WorkingerLF	.500	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. TrompC	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GuscetteC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. WaddellSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.600	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. ClohisyCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	11	15	11	2	2	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	6.0	5	1	1	0	3	75
R. IglesiasRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	2	21
T. LaPorteRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
A. BummerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
I. HamiltonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
Team	9.0	9	2	2	1	8	130

Team

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs TB.