Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 16, 2026

FINAL+5ARI

CIN

12-11

611

ARI

11-12-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

10,807 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Andrew AbbottCIN
4.4± 1.6medium

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

ARI

.699

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.310

OBP

.319

.307

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.22

4.57

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.33

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CIN 6 · ARI 11 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	1	0	6
ARI	1	0	5	4	1	0	0	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.306	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.250	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.324	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
N. LoweDH	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MyersCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
P.J. HigginsC	.179	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. Hampson2B	.094	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. VargasSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JorgeCF	.308	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. PinedaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. HendrickRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Toglia1B	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LewisSS	.417	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. HindsRF	.382	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. TorresSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Urbaez2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	9	5	4	3	13

Player

.306

.250

.324

.250

.333

.333

.179

.094

.000

.308

.000

.250

.273

.417

.382

.500

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	2.0	8	8	8	3	3	76
G. RomanoRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	19
H. DannerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	1	0	1	2	24
T. SantillanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
L. MeyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	14	11	10	5	9	0

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LawlarLF	.282	3	2	1	0	0	1	2
J. AmayaSS	.333	4	2	3	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.314	2	2	1	2	0	1	0
J. McCannC	.214	4	2	2	3	1	0	1
L. Groover1B	.341	3	2	2	3	1	1	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.256	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
M. Pena2B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	2	0
A.J. VukovichCF	.152	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
Ó. MercadoRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. CatuyCF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. CrisantesSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RodriguezSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. O'NeillC	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Luis2B	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. NinSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. FrancoLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Marte1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Owusu-AsieduCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	11	14	10	2	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	4.0	4	1	1	1	6	66
K. GinkelRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	7
P. AbnerRP	1.2	1	1	1	1	2	23
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	26
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
K. StrowdRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	9	6	6	3	13	0

Team

CIN

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CIN.