Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+3STL

WSH

11-7-3

STL

12-8-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,737 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium
Andre PallanteSTL
2.4± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

STL

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.324

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

4.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.35

7.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

WSH 3 · STL 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
STL	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. AbramsSS	.179	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. WoodRF	.074	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.240	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. LileLF	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.143	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. House3B	.448	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. Nunez2B	.200	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.111	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
R. DiazSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. AdamsC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WilliamsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. PichardoSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. JordanCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	3	5	3	1	3	9

Player

.179

.074

.240

.167

.143

.125

.448

.200

.111

.250

.333

.182

.208

.000

.000

.000

.280

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MikolasSP	4.2	5	5	4	3	1	83
R. CranzP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	3
B. LordRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	22
C. BeeterRP	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	24
D. SmithRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
Team	8.0	8	6	4	3	5	135

Player

4.2

0.1

2.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.148	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. Burleson1B	.320	2	1	2	0	0	1	0
N. Gorman3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. VelazquezLF	.333	3	1	2	4	1	0	0
J. FerminLF	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.286	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.125	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.160	1	1	0	1	0	1	0
B. Moore2B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Jordan3B	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Paige3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SuarezRF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. KoperniakLF	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. YerzyC	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CordobaLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	6	8	5	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FittsSP	4.2	1	2	2	3	5	78
H. HayesP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	8
R. StanekRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
J. RomeroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
R. O'BrienRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
M. PushardRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	3	3	3	9	136

Team

WSH

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs WSH.