Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

ATL

15-5-2

PHI

8-12-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,649 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

PHI

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.311

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.38

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 1 · PHI 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Wisely2B	.333	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.344	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. SmithDH	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.419	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. GamelRF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WilliamsSS	.154	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
S. LeonC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. HicklenCF	.136	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SchunkSS	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. TavarezSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. EspinozaSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Groshans3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TolveC	.500	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. TrompC	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MaciasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JonesSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	1	5	1	1	2	7

Player

.333

.344

.286

.419

.222

.154

.000

.136

.174

.500

.333

.000

.444

.500

.200

.333

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SuarezRP	4.0	4	0	0	2	3	61
J. PayampsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
J. RitchieSP	4.0	0	0	0	0	6	52
Team	9.0	4	0	0	2	11	126

Player

J. SuarezRP

4.0

J. PayampsRP

1.0

J. RitchieSP

4.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.138	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.120	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaRF	.192	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Stott2B	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. De La CruzOF	.323	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.280	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RojasCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Farquhar2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. StubbsC	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. LeonRF	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ware2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. BritoSS	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Moore2B	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	4	0	0	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WalkerSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	3	60
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
G. CabreraRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	15
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	7	118

Team

ATL

PHI

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs ATL.