Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+6KC

CHW

13-10-1

410

8-14-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

7,455 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 2.6high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium
Michael WachaKC
2.4± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.738

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

4.25

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CHW 4 · KC 10 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4
KC	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	2	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BenintendiDH	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. MontgomerySS	.231	5	1	1	0	0	0	3
M. Vargas3B	.341	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
A. HaysLF	.359	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. QueroC	.341	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
L. AcunaCF	.484	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
L. Wade Jr.1B	.265	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
K. LeeC	.345	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.323	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. HarrisLF	.471	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Da. Baker2B	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.313	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. NishidaRF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Weber2B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConnorOF	.364	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Perez3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. MurrayLF	.211	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		35	4	9	3	0	5	12

Player

.269

.231

.341

.359

.341

.484

.265

.345

.323

.471

.429

.313

.143

.200

.364

.000

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. SmithSP	2.0	0	0	0	1	5	30
E. FeddeSP	3.2	7	3	3	1	4	67
A. AlbertoRP	1.0	2	4	2	1	1	28
B. EisertRP	1.1	4	3	3	1	2	25
Team	8.0	13	10	8	4	12	150

Player

2.0

3.2

1.0

1.1

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.313	1	0	1	2	0	1	0
S. MarteRF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. JensenC	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
B. Drury2B	.214	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. Loftin2B	.300	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.226	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.240	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.231	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. MartinRF	.143	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. BrownC	.200	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.300	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
G. CrossRF	.286	2	1	1	3	0	0	1
A. Toro1B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. Wilson2B	.174	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
D. VazquezSS	.304	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. CharlesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	10	13	10	3	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RagansSP	3.2	4	2	2	2	5	63
A. LangeRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	23
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	21
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
L. ErcegRP	1.0	3	2	0	0	2	23
E. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	9	4	2	5	12	160

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

KC vs CHW.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers