Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

MIA

8-11-2

HOU

9-10-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,904 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.711

OPS

.718

▶

.726

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

MIA 0 · HOU 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. HicksC	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. Edwards2B	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
G. ConineLF	.226	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.147	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. Pauley3B	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. RuizRF	.115	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Berry1B	.045	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BastidasSS	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. MorlandoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Ab. Ramirez2B	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. VargasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Lara3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Hernandez3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	8

Player

.333

.148

.233

.226

.147

.273

.115

.045

.174

.200

.000

.500

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	4.0	0	0	0	1	5	53
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
B. BlalockSP	1.2	1	1	0	0	2	40
G. ActonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	8.0	1	1	0	1	9	119

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.1

Team

8.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ColeLF	.172	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Altuve2B	.107	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
Y. AlvarezDH	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazC	.095	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AlvarezOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.115	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SmithRF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Whitcomb3B	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.192	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. LytleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaccoSS	.077	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SalazarC	.158	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.214	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Winkler2B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		26	1	1	1	0	1	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JavierSP	4.0	2	0	0	1	5	56
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	11
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
B. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	25
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	8	112

Team

MIA

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.