Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL+5BOS

MIN

7-14-1

BOS

10-11

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,205 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.1± 1.0low

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

BOS

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.697

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIN 2 · BOS 7 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2
BOS	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. LeeSS	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.368	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.387	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. RodenLF	.353	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.161	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MartinRF	.259	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
R. KreidlerCF	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. MercedesCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
Y. HerreraSS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.258	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. Urshela3B	.208	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. BanuelosC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.111	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RosarioRF	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	8	2	0	6	7

Player

.263

.368

.387

.353

.111

.161

.200

.259

.133

.000

.000

.258

.208

.222

.071

.111

.154

.308

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	5.0	4	2	0	0	1	75
E. OrzeRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	21
M. BowmanRP	1.1	2	1	0	0	2	23
G. HartwigRP	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	25
Team	8.0	10	7	4	3	4	144

Player

5.0

0.2

1.1

1.0

Team

8.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.533	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.316	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.400	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.414	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.083	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.318	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.077	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
N. EatonOF	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RomeroSS	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.368	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. Campbell2B	.229	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.208	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. ChengSS	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. HickeyC	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DelayC	.333	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
A. CastroCF	.294	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. McDonoughOF	.280	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	7	10	6	1	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. KellerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	31
J. SlatenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	17
R. WatsonRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	2	39
W. OldsRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	16
N. SongSP	2.0	1	1	1	2	2	29
Team	9.0	8	2	2	6	7	171

Team

MIN

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIN.