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FINAL+2BAL
NYY
19-12
02
BAL
13-13-3
Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · BAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
NYY
league avg
BAL
.749
OPS
◀
.718
.718
.323
OBP
◀
.319
.319
4.93
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.61
3.32
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.36
1.19
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.37
8.8
K / 9
◀
8.5
8.1
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
BAL wins
NYY 0 · BAL 2 (by 2)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant