San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 15, 2026

FINAL

11-11-1

ARI

10-12-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

13,851 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ARI

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.692

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.307

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.30

WHIP

1.31

1.30

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 4 · ARI 4 (tied)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4
ARI	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.344	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.444	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.207	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.235	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.342	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.279	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. CampusanoC	.148	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. TaylorLF	.233	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.171	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.217	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
H. VilarC	.250	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. Solak1B	.342	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.333	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
R. JacksonUN	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.241	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. RobertsCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.323	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.321	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		33	4	6	4	0	3	9

Player

.344

.444

.207

.235

.342

.279

.148

.233

.171

.217

.250

.342

.333

.143

.241

.000

.323

.321

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	4.1	5	4	4	0	4	71
J. MorenoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
J. YeagerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	5	4	4	1	5	126

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

126

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. ThomasCF	.389	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.361	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaC	.174	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.258	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.368	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. DixSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JonesCF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. ClarkSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Santana3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. JosephaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. LoganC	.556	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. Soler3B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Melendez3B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. ConticelloOF	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Serretti3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RodriguezSS	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	5	3	0	1	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. PfaadtRP	5.0	0	0	0	0	6	51
J. LoaisigaRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	26
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21
B. GarciaRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	0	29
J. CurtissRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	14
Team	9.0	6	4	4	3	9	143

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SD.