Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+3MIA

MIA

8-10-1

WSH

11-6-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,787 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low
Zack LittellWSH
2.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

WSH

.711

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.323

OBP

◀

.319

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.69

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 4 · WSH 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	4
WSH	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. HernandezLF	.222	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. ConineLF	.222	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. AldermanRF	.167	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. O'DonnellCF	.333	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. HostetlerC	.214	3	1	1	2	1	1	0
D. LewisOF	.214	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. OlmsteadSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. MatheusSS	.000	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Henriquez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo1B	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jenkins-CowartOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. RiosC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ClaytonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	4	3	1	3	6

Player

.222

.222

.167

.333

.214

.214

.000

.200

.000

.000

.200

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. GibsonRP	1.2	1	0	0	2	4	42
T. ZuberRP	2.0	3	1	1	1	2	37
J. EknessRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
C. MartinRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
M. PetersenRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	23
S. VasquezP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	15
S. JonesRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	4	1	1	5	13	147

Player

1.2

2.0

1.0

0.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TenaDH	.174	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
H. FordC	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. House3B	.444	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Chaparro1B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Hassell IIICF	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Ortiz1B	.100	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. WiemerRF	.080	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. FranklinLF	.350	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. WillitsSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. DickersonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. DiazSS	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. GreenCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T.J. White1B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VaqueroRF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. CruzSS	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	4	1	0	5	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. ClemmeySP	3.0	0	2	0	1	2	50
T. SchultzSP	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	15
A. GranilloRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	18
C. HenryRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	23
O. RibaltaRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	12
G. VarlandRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
Z. PenrodRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	4	4	2	3	6	133

Team

MIA

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs MIA.