Cleveland Guardians vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+3SD

CLE

10-11-1

11-11

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

5,807 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Joey CantilloCLE
4.9± 3.3medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.676

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.297

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

3.91

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CLE 5 · SD 8 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1	5
SD	0	0	4	2	2	0	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinezLF	.357	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.381	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.214	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. Manzardo1B	.147	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. Hoskins1B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. RocchioSS	.313	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. HalpinCF	.320	3	2	1	1	1	0	1
J. LaVioletteOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Abreus2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RosarioRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Kieboom3B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. IngleC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. AntunezRF	.286	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Collado1B	.429	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. Benjamin3B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	5	7	4	2	2	15

Player

.357

.381

.214

.147

.200

.313

.292

.238

.320

.000

.000

.000

.111

.100

.286

.429

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AllenRP	2.2	7	6	6	3	3	68
J. DriverRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8
W. ThorntonRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	18
S. ArmstrongRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	22
C. HeuerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
P. AvilaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	8.0	11	8	8	5	9	148

Player

2.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LaureanoLF	.269	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
X. BogaertsSS	.286	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.281	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. AndujarDH	.294	4	1	2	4	1	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.231	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.361	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Cronenworth2B	.345	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
F. FerminC	.458	2	3	2	2	1	1	0
K. TearsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. TaylorLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.156	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. KingC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. FabianOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. VilarC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Mondou2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Verdugo3B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		34	8	11	8	2	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. PivettaSP	3.0	2	2	2	2	4	56
K. HartRP	3.0	4	2	0	0	6	50
K. OlmedoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
L. GutierrezSP	2.0	1	1	1	0	3	36
Team	9.0	7	5	3	2	15	151

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CLE.