Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+2PIT

BAL

8-11-2

PIT

15-6

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

6,595 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.0± 2.9medium

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

PIT

.718

OPS

.718

▶

.755

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.61

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.11

4.36

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.14

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

BAL 6 · PIT 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	6
PIT	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.296	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.267	4	1	2	3	1	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. CowserCF	.290	5	0	2	1	0	0	3
B. Alexander3B	.259	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
J. Jackson2B	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. BeaversRF	.241	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
B. Ramos3B	.280	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
We. Wilson3B	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. HandleyC	.143	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Smith2B	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Figueroa1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HightowerSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. JosenbergerLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HodoCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	6	13	6	2	2	12

Player

.296

.267

.278

.290

.259

.217

.241

.280

.286

.143

.667

.000

.211

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	61
D. EnnsRP	1.2	1	1	1	1	0	26
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	4	3	3	1	2	32
D. LloydRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
H. CrouseRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	19
Team	8.0	12	8	8	3	8	142

Player

4.0

1.2

1.0

0.1

1.0

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. DavisC	.053	2	1	1	2	1	1	0
B. Lowe2B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.250	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.269	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
R. O'HearnRF	.391	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. Gonzales3B	.500	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Horwitz1B	.150	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MangumLF	.321	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Flores Jr.C	.105	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.300	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
En. Valdez1B	.077	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
Jared R. Jones1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PolancoOF	.167	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. SanfordSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. GonzalezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Stovall2B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.292	2	1	1	2	1	0	1
Team		35	9	12	8	3	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MlodzinskiSP	5.0	7	2	2	0	5	64
C. SandersRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	23
J. LawrenceRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	23
J. MeisSP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	8
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
M. MontgomeryRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
Team	9.0	13	6	6	2	12	146

Team

BAL

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

3 sub-models, blended.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs BAL.