Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+3TB

7-13-1

MIN

7-13-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

7,552 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIN

.730

OPS

.718

.734

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

TB 9 · MIN 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	4	9
MIN	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	3	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MeltonLF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. FraleyRF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
B. Williamson2B	.379	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. FortesC	.300	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. MalloyRF	.241	3	0	2	3	0	0	0
E. OlivaresRF	.043	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
L. Davidson1B	.172	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DatilOF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Kinney2B	.043	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
X. Isaac1B	.400	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. GuerreroOF	.667	1	2	1	1	0	1	0
R. Delgado2B	.148	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
K. PiperC	.333	2	1	1	3	1	0	0
B. JonesOF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. VellojinC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Taylor3B	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		36	9	10	9	1	8	7

Player

.143

.111

.333

.333

.379

.300

.241

.043

.172

.500

.043

.400

.667

.148

.333

.100

.000

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodfordRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	1	40
C. SulserRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	27
K. KellyRP	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	31
H. BiggeRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
C. SoleskyRP	1.0	2	3	3	2	0	27
Team	9.0	6	6	6	6	7	167

Player

2.0

1.2

1.1

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WallnerRF	.294	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.371	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.400	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
K. Clemens1B	.304	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.171	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. CaratiniC	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
O. ArciaSS	.227	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. Urshela3B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Doncon3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. BanuelosC	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. RosarioRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. GenthSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. HessOF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. CardenasC	.231	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Salas2B	.500	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	6	6	5	1	6	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Woods RichardsonSP	4.0	3	3	3	3	2	79
M. HilkerRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	9
T. RogersRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
L. HendriksRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	20
A. ChafinRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	21
A. BandaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
B. StullP	1.0	3	4	4	1	2	36
Team	9.0	10	9	9	8	7	198

Team

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs TB.