New York Mets vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+6HOU

NYM

10-8-1

HOU

8-10-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

4,348 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

HOU

.675

OPS

.718

▶

.726

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.316

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

NYM 2 · HOU 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	3	3	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.381	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. Vientos1B	.048	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BengeRF	.367	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Arroyo2B	.217	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Rojas3B	.040	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. BarnesC	.313	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. PacheOF	.440	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Voit2B	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. RamosCF	.091	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. Willhoite3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BaeCF	.294	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Schwartz1B	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. RortvedtC	.111	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
S. JuanRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Roselli2B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	2	11	2	0	3	5

Player

.381

.048

.367

.217

.040

.313

.273

.440

.167

.091

.000

.294

1.000

.111

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	4.0	1	1	1	1	5	56
L. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
S. GarciaRP	1.0	1	3	3	2	2	28
J. GeberRP	1.1	3	3	3	1	2	31
C. CosperRP	0.2	2	1	0	1	0	20
Team	8.0	7	8	7	5	9	142

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TrammellCF	.276	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
I. Paredes3B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. AlvarezDH	.316	3	1	2	4	1	0	0
C. CorreaSS	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Biggio1B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	2	1
J. MeyersCF	.125	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
CJ Alexander1B	.063	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.154	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Biggers2B	.111	2	2	0	0	0	1	1
J. LoperfidoLF	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
P. Ferreras2B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Nelson3B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. WhitakerRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		30	8	7	6	1	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeissRP	4.1	2	0	0	1	1	53
R. MunozRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	4
P. LambertSP	3.0	7	1	1	1	3	61
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	28
Team	9.0	11	2	2	3	5	146

Team

NYM

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs NYM.